Do I ship it?

GamesCollectathonCollectathon + Psychological Horror

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Psychological-Horror Collectathon game?

Collectathon + Psychological Horror

Of 63 developers who shipped a Psychological-Horror Collectathon game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 74 more are announced.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $720, ×1.5 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $270; 1 in 20 cleared $140k, ×295 the market median. Revenue is down 30% on the market; 74 games are announced against 39 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.5 times the market baseline, revenue down 30% on the market, 74 announced, ×1.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Collectathon + Psychological Horror
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 63
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.3k → $1.9k → $2.1k → $1.2k → $9.7k → $300 → $300 (still earning) → $1.4k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Collectathon + Psychological Horror: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 63
Bottom 30% $269 (exactly $269)
Median $718 (exactly $718)
Top 25% $7.3k (exactly $7,253)
Top 5% $140k (exactly $140,330)
Developers, 2 yr 63
Released games 180
Announced 74
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $3.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 30% on the market, supply 45% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Collectathon
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Psychological Horror
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Collectathon; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Exploration, Puzzle
Price point
$3.99 typical · top 25% priced $9.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Dark, Cute
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $9.99 or above; the middle game at $3.99.

The top 10 games average 91% positive over 7,450 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $270, median $720, 1 in 4 over $7.2k, 1 in 20 over $140k.

3 in 10 developers made under $270. 8 in 10 of the 39 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 74 games are announced against 39 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Collectathon with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Job SimulatorStrong odds33 devs · median $33k · 42 announced
  2. + CapitalismStrong odds76 devs · median $6.2k · 75 announced
  3. + Turn-BasedFair7 devs · median $14k · 8 announced
  4. + EconomyFair125 devs · median $3.8k · 151 announced
  5. + ManagementFair182 devs · median $3.5k · 230 announced
  6. + CrimeFair10 devs · median $3.4k · 14 announced
  7. + Level EditorFair15 devs · median $3.4k · 17 announced
  8. + Artificial IntelligenceFair46 devs · median $2.7k · 30 announced
  9. + SokobanFair12 devs · median $2.4k · 9 announced
  10. + MythologyFair18 devs · median $2.4k · 20 announced
  11. + UnderwaterFair37 devs · median $2.3k · 37 announced
  12. + Combat RacingFair10 devs · median $2.2k · 12 announced

All 178 pairs on the Collectathon page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Lunch Lady older $4.99 9,722 86% 292k $1.5M (exactly $1,455,383) Manic Mice
Broken Reality older $14.99 2,152 92% 65k $968k (exactly $967,754) Dynamic Media Triad
Boo Men · EA older $7.99 2,088 88% 63k $500k (exactly $500,494) Twisted Corridor👻
Supermarket Chaos $4.99 3,266 92% 98k $489k (exactly $488,920) BunnyHop
Enter The Backrooms older $9.99 986 87% 30k $296k (exactly $295,504) Justin Kroh
Paranormal Cleanup $9.99 961 88% 29k $288k (exactly $288,012) Manic Mice
Garage: Bad Dream Adventure older $19.90 364 97% 11k $217k (exactly $217,308) 作場金属製作所 Sakuba Metal Works, SmokymonkeyS
Dread X Collection 2 older $9.99 573 93% 17k $172k (exactly $171,728) DreadXP, David Szymanski, Torple Dook,… (DreadXP, David Szymanski, Torple Dook, Lovely Hellplace, Scythe Dev Team, Secret Cow Level, panstasz, Mahelyk, Daniel Mullins Games, Wither Studios, Akabaka, Vidas Salavejus, Wayward Preacher, John Szymanski, Bathysfear Labs, Abbey 'Scruncho' Smith)
Tales From Off-Peak City Vol. 1 older $9.99 533 98% 16k $160k (exactly $159,740) Cosmo D
Anomalous Coffee Machine 2 $6.99 753 81% 23k $158k (exactly $157,904) HoruBrain Interactive
While Waiting $19.99 234 75% 7.0k $140k (exactly $140,330) Optillusion
Chicken Hill $2.99 1,134 99% 34k $102k (exactly $101,720) 梗立游戏
Babushka's Glitch Dungeon $5.99 259 98% 7.8k $47k (exactly $46,542) pets club 2
Interdimensional Vending Machine $7.99 185 84% 5.6k $44k (exactly $44,344) Neuroticfly Games
Jeffrey Eggstein · EA $4.99 290 94% 8.7k $43k (exactly $43,413) Grabba Guild Games LLC
Playing House $6.99 197 94% 5.9k $41k (exactly $41,311) 鬱薔薇檸檬(UtubaraLemon)
Dark Succubus $6.99 171 77% 5.1k $36k (exactly $35,859) ZC Game

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.