Do I ship it?

GamesCollectathonCollectathon + Psychological

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Psychological Collectathon game?

Collectathon + Psychological

Only 18 developers shipped a Psychological Collectathon game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Master Lemon: The Quest for Iceland, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 30 more are announced, ×2.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $240 in the last 2 years and $360 over 4, against a market of $480 for a 4 / 10 build. 14 developers shipped in the last year and 30 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.5 times the market baseline, revenue down 90% on the market, 30 announced, ×2.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Collectathon + Psychological
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 18
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.8k → $1.2k → $359 → $3.5k → $359 → $359 (still earning) → $150 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Collectathon + Psychological: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 18
Bottom 30% $0 (exactly $0)
Median $239 (exactly $239)
Top 25% $750 (exactly $750)
Top 5% $32k (exactly $32,368)
Developers, 2 yr 18
Released games 53
Announced 30
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 90% on the market, supply 180% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Collectathon
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Psychological
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Collectathon; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Exploration, Puzzle
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Funny, Surreal
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 94% positive over 195 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $50, median $240, 1 in 4 over $750, 1 in 20 over $32k.

3 in 10 developers made under $50. 30 games are announced against 14 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Collectathon with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Job SimulatorStrong odds33 devs · median $33k · 42 announced
  2. + CapitalismStrong odds76 devs · median $6.2k · 75 announced
  3. + Turn-BasedFair7 devs · median $14k · 8 announced
  4. + EconomyFair125 devs · median $3.8k · 151 announced
  5. + ManagementFair182 devs · median $3.5k · 230 announced
  6. + CrimeFair10 devs · median $3.4k · 14 announced
  7. + Level EditorFair15 devs · median $3.4k · 17 announced
  8. + Artificial IntelligenceFair46 devs · median $2.7k · 30 announced
  9. + SokobanFair12 devs · median $2.4k · 9 announced
  10. + MythologyFair18 devs · median $2.4k · 20 announced
  11. + UnderwaterFair37 devs · median $2.3k · 37 announced
  12. + Combat RacingFair10 devs · median $2.2k · 12 announced

All 178 pairs on the Collectathon page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Psychonauts older $9.99 12,343 95% 370k $3.7M (exactly $3,699,197) Double Fine Productions
Enter The Backrooms older $9.99 986 87% 30k $296k (exactly $295,504) Justin Kroh
MAKOTO WAKAIDO’s Case Files TRILOGY DELUXE older $12.99 259 77% 7.8k $101k (exactly $100,932) Hakababunko
qop older $1.99 1,088 91% 33k $65k (exactly $64,954) Quiet River
tomorrow won't come for those without ██████ older $1.99 975 93% 29k $58k (exactly $58,208) etherane
Dragon Spirits 2 older $13.99 137 84% 4.1k $57k (exactly $57,499) FHNBHJ
Lost Alone Ultimate older $14.99 92 88% 2.8k $41k (exactly $41,372) Daniele Doesn't Matter
Master Lemon: The Quest for Iceland $9.99 108 100% 3.2k $32k (exactly $32,368) Pepita Digital
Hodgepodge Hunch older $4.99 140 93% 4.2k $21k (exactly $20,958) uracon
Back Then older $12.99 39 92% 1.2k $15k (exactly $15,198) Octopus Embrace, Hellesthaeus
1000 Deaths (Thousand Deaths) $14.99 33 87% 990 $15k (exactly $14,840) Pariah Interactive, Inc.
Habit Puzzles $9.99 13 100% 390 $3.9k (exactly $3,896) NQNStudios
HANGAR 8 $3.99 29 86% 870 $3.5k (exactly $3,471) Twin Tail Digital
ちなみほりっく -Chinami Holic- $24.99 1 0% 30 $750 (exactly $750) CyberStep, Inc.
Striatum $5.99 2 100% 60 $359 (exactly $359) Compact Qualia
Spiral $3.99 3 100% 90 $359 (exactly $359) 小林 悠
BARABIZNA $3.99 2 100% 60 $239 (exactly $239) CepSoft
Fragment $3.99 2 50% 60 $239 (exactly $239) Wakely Co
Lost Item $3.99 2 50% 60 $239 (exactly $239) to_teki

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.