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Should I ship a Collectathon Perma Death game?
Collectathon + Perma Death
Of 20 developers who shipped a Collectathon Perma Death game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 19 more are announced, ×2.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $720, ×1.5 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $210; 1 in 20 cleared $5.0M, ×10613 the market median. Revenue is down 30% on the market; 19 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $210 (exactly $210) |
|---|---|
| Median | $718 (exactly $718) |
| Top 25% | $2.8k (exactly $2,844) |
| Top 5% | $5.0M (exactly $5,041,078) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 20 |
| Released games | 42 |
| Announced | 19 |
| Effort | 4 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $4.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 30% on the market, supply 20% fewer developers than the period before.
Free games: 7%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Collectathon
- effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
- Perma Death
- effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
What it takes
- Effort
- 4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
- Systems
- Collectathon, Perma Death; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Exploration, Open World, RPG
- Price point
- $4.99 typical · top 25% priced $15.99 or above
- Art
- 4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, 3D, Atmospheric
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $15.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.
The top 10 games average 92% positive over 9,372 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $210. 7 in 10 of the 11 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 19 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.1 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Collectathon with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + Job SimulatorStrong odds
- + CapitalismStrong odds
- + Turn-BasedFair
- + EconomyFair
- + ManagementFair
- + CrimeFair
- + Level EditorFair
- + Artificial IntelligenceFair
- + SokobanFair
- + MythologyFair
- + UnderwaterFair
- + Combat RacingFair
Comparable games
Elin 2024 · EA · $5.0M 
Night Raider 2024 · $343k 
9th Dawn Remake 2024 · $247k 
硬币与仙人掌 (Coins & Wishpalm) 2025 · $144k 
DON'T LOOK AT GRANDMA 2025 · $9.6k | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Elin | · EA | $19.99 | 8,406 93% | 252k | $5.0M (exactly $5,041,078) | Lafrontier |
| | Night Raider | older | $5.99 | 1,908 85% | 57k | $343k (exactly $342,868) | TSUKUYOMIC |
| | 9th Dawn Remake | $15.99 | 514 86% | 15k | $247k (exactly $246,566) | Valorware | |
| | 硬币与仙人掌 (Coins & Wishpalm) | $13.99 | 343 77% | 10k | $144k (exactly $143,957) | Moshow Games | |
| | DON'T LOOK AT GRANDMA | $4.99 | 64 93% | 1.9k | $9.6k (exactly $9,581) | Danger Sauce LLC | |
 | Active Mummy | older | $4.99 | 22 81% | 660 | $3.3k (exactly $3,293) | RENFALC |
 | Spooky Typing: The Ghost Plague | older | $4.99 | 22 86% | 660 | $3.3k (exactly $3,293) | Sensen Games |
 | Rolling Car | older | $4.99 | 21 61% | 630 | $3.1k (exactly $3,144) | SimpleSoft |
 | Typomancer in the Feather's Way | older | $4.99 | 21 80% | 630 | $3.1k (exactly $3,144) | Sensen Games |
 | Dream fallen remake - village | $4.99 | 19 68% | 570 | $2.8k (exactly $2,844) | Paulo Pereira, Beatriz Pereira Arabe | |
 | Monsters Loot Swag | $19.99 | 3 66% | 90 | $1.8k (exactly $1,799) | YorkshireRifles | |
 | Death Nomad | $9.99 | 6 50% | 180 | $1.8k (exactly $1,798) | Cosmic Noise | |
 | Flame Land | $4.99 | 5 100% | 150 | $748 (exactly $748) | Charlie Burke | |
 | hora | $3.99 | 6 66% | 180 | $718 (exactly $718) | aerraflow | |
 | Bao Boi | $3.99 | 6 100% | 180 | $718 (exactly $718) | Picnic Byte |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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