Do I ship it?

GamesCollectathonCollectathon + Ninja

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Ninja Collectathon game?

Collectathon + Ninja

Only 7 developers shipped a Ninja Collectathon game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, 戦国英雄譚-Samurai Heroes-, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 3 more are announced.

Verdict: dead, for a 5 / 10 build.

Only 3 developers shipped this in the last year, under the 5 a verdict needs; over 2 years the middle one made $920 against a market of $630. 3 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 1.5 times the market baseline, revenue down 100% on the market, 3 announced, ×1.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Collectathon + Ninja
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 7
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.5k → $921 → $0 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Collectathon + Ninja: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 7
Bottom 30% $179 (exactly $179)
Median $921 (exactly $921)
Top 25% $3.6k (exactly $3,596)
Top 5% $14k (exactly $14,086)
Developers, 2 yr 7
Released games 26
Announced 3
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue too few recent games to read momentum, supply 25% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 19%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Collectathon
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Ninja
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Collectathon
Price point
$7.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

Fewer than 10 games in the last 2 years; sentiment and price figures use the all window.

The top 25% priced at $9.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 81% positive over 4,134 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $180, median $920, 1 in 4 over $3.5k, 1 in 20 over $14k.

3 in 10 developers made under $180. All of the 5 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 3 games are announced against 3 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Collectathon with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Job SimulatorStrong odds33 devs · median $33k · 42 announced
  2. + CapitalismStrong odds76 devs · median $6.2k · 75 announced
  3. + Turn-BasedFair7 devs · median $14k · 8 announced
  4. + EconomyFair125 devs · median $3.8k · 151 announced
  5. + ManagementFair182 devs · median $3.5k · 230 announced
  6. + CrimeFair10 devs · median $3.4k · 14 announced
  7. + Level EditorFair15 devs · median $3.4k · 17 announced
  8. + Artificial IntelligenceFair46 devs · median $2.7k · 30 announced
  9. + SokobanFair12 devs · median $2.4k · 9 announced
  10. + MythologyFair18 devs · median $2.4k · 20 announced
  11. + UnderwaterFair37 devs · median $2.3k · 37 announced
  12. + Combat RacingFair10 devs · median $2.2k · 12 announced

All 178 pairs on the Collectathon page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Samurai Bringer older $9.99 1,012 87% 30k $303k (exactly $303,296) ALPHAWING Inc.
Ninja Stealth older $4.99 912 76% 27k $137k (exactly $136,526) SC Jogos
Ninja Stealth 2 older $4.99 667 70% 20k $100k (exactly $99,850) SC Jogos
Ninja Stealth 3 older $4.99 545 81% 16k $82k (exactly $81,586) SC Jogos
Zool Redimensioned older $9.99 173 95% 5.2k $52k (exactly $51,848) Sumo Digital Academy
Old Coin Pusher Friends older $3.99 351 89% 11k $42k (exactly $42,015) STP WORKS
Old Coin Pusher Friends 3 older $3.99 212 91% 6.4k $25k (exactly $25,376) STP WORKS
Ninja Stealth 4 older $4.99 141 76% 4.2k $21k (exactly $21,108) SC Jogos
戦国英雄譚-Samurai Heroes- $9.99 47 89% 1.4k $14k (exactly $14,086) hizaniya games
Ninja Stealth 5 older $4.99 74 78% 2.2k $11k (exactly $11,078) SC Jogos
Ghost Infinite Labyrinth $7.99 15 60% 450 $3.6k (exactly $3,596) riinwin
NatsumeRyoran - Romance of Hi-Spec Yoko - $24.99 2 50% 60 $1.5k (exactly $1,499) CyberStep, Inc.
100 Find Kitties: Ninja $0.99 31 83% 930 $921 (exactly $921) Sons of Welder, fm simple games studio
Super Silent Sensei $2.99 2 0% 60 $179 (exactly $179) Elmeryn Studios
Stabby Redux · EA $9.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Soaring Roc Studio
忍者刺杀行动 $2.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) 一半世界

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.