Do I ship it?

GamesCollectathonCollectathon + Nature

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Nature Collectathon game?

Collectathon + Nature

Of 192 developers who shipped a Nature Collectathon game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 258 more are announced, ×2.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.5k, ×3.2 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $230k, ×501 the market median. Revenue is up 125% on the market; 258 games are announced against 110 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.2 times the market baseline, revenue up 125% on the market, 258 announced, ×2.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Collectathon + Nature
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 192
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.6k → $1.8k → $4.5k → $1.5k → $2.6k → $1.6k → $2.6k (still earning) → $510 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Collectathon + Nature: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 192
Bottom 30% $299 (exactly $299)
Median $1.5k (exactly $1,497)
Top 25% $6.6k (exactly $6,587)
Top 5% $238k (exactly $238,022)
Developers, 2 yr 192
Released games 423
Announced 258
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 125% on the market, supply 30% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Collectathon
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Nature
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Collectathon; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Adventure, Exploration
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Cute, Relaxing, Colorful
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 95% positive over 16,838 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $1.5k, 1 in 4 over $6.5k, 1 in 20 over $230k.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 9 in 10 of the 94 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 258 games are announced against 110 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Collectathon with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Job SimulatorStrong odds33 devs · median $33k · 42 announced
  2. + CapitalismStrong odds76 devs · median $6.2k · 75 announced
  3. + Turn-BasedFair7 devs · median $14k · 8 announced
  4. + EconomyFair125 devs · median $3.8k · 151 announced
  5. + ManagementFair182 devs · median $3.5k · 230 announced
  6. + CrimeFair10 devs · median $3.4k · 14 announced
  7. + Level EditorFair15 devs · median $3.4k · 17 announced
  8. + Artificial IntelligenceFair46 devs · median $2.7k · 30 announced
  9. + SokobanFair12 devs · median $2.4k · 9 announced
  10. + MythologyFair18 devs · median $2.4k · 20 announced
  11. + UnderwaterFair37 devs · median $2.3k · 37 announced
  12. + Combat RacingFair10 devs · median $2.2k · 12 announced

All 178 pairs on the Collectathon page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Tiny Bookshop $19.99 6,967 96% 209k $4.2M (exactly $4,178,110) neoludic games
Webbed older $9.99 13,820 97% 415k $4.1M (exactly $4,141,854) Sbug Games
Alba: A Wildlife Adventure older $16.99 6,799 97% 204k $3.5M (exactly $3,465,450) ustwo games
Chillquarium older $5.99 7,780 92% 233k $1.4M (exactly $1,398,066) Ben Reber
Ogu and the Secret Forest older $24.99 1,817 94% 55k $1.4M (exactly $1,362,205) Moonlab Studio, Sinkhole Studio
Outpath older $14.99 2,898 92% 87k $1.3M (exactly $1,303,231) David Moralejo Sánchez
Flower older $6.99 4,790 79% 144k $1.0M (exactly $1,004,463) thatgamecompany
The Fisherman - Fishing Planet older $29.99 975 62% 29k $877k (exactly $877,208) Fishing Planet LLC
Tiny Aquarium: Social Fishkeeping $7.49 3,386 95% 102k $761k (exactly $760,834) Lunheim Studios
Shin chan: Shiro and the Coal Town $29.99 837 95% 25k $753k (exactly $753,049) h.a.n.d., Inc.
Sapphire Safari · EA $12.99 1,653 92% 50k $644k (exactly $644,174) Kinky Fridays
Find Matt's Cats $19.99 719 98% 22k $431k (exactly $431,184) Matt Roszak
Adorable Adventures $19.99 698 93% 21k $419k (exactly $418,591) Wild Sheep Studio
Mika and The Witch's Mountain $19.99 671 86% 20k $402k (exactly $402,399) Chibig, Nukefist
Isopod: A Webbed Spin-off $19.99 511 88% 15k $306k (exactly $306,447) Sbug Games
Cinnabunny $24.99 403 96% 12k $302k (exactly $302,129) Reky Studios
Mudborne: Frog Management Sim $7.99 993 96% 30k $238k (exactly $238,022) ellraiser, TNgineers

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.