Do I ship it?

GamesCollectathonCollectathon + Modern

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Modern-Day Collectathon game?

Collectathon + Modern

Of 22 developers who shipped a Modern-Day Collectathon game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 21 more are announced.

Verdict: fair, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.2k, ×4.5 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, with 3 in 10 under $900. Revenue is up 350% on the market; 21 games are announced against 12 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 4.5 times the market baseline, revenue up 350% on the market, 21 announced, ×1.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Collectathon + Modern
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 22
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $5.7k → $34k → $3.0k → $1.5k → $1.1k → $2.7k → $150 (still earning) → $3.6k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Collectathon + Modern: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 22
Bottom 30% $898 (exactly $898)
Median $2.2k (exactly $2,155)
Top 25% $5.1k (exactly $5,090)
Top 5% $158k (exactly $157,904)
Developers, 2 yr 22
Released games 78
Announced 21
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $10.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 350% on the market, supply 10% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 8%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Collectathon
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Modern
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Collectathon; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Adventure, Choices Matter
Price point
$10.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Anime, 2D, Atmospheric
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $10.99.

The top 10 games average 89% positive over 16,800 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $900, median $2.2k, 1 in 4 over $5.0k, 1 in 20 over $150k.

3 in 10 developers made under $900. All of the 19 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 21 games are announced against 12 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Collectathon with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Job SimulatorStrong odds33 devs · median $33k · 42 announced
  2. + CapitalismStrong odds76 devs · median $6.2k · 75 announced
  3. + Turn-BasedFair7 devs · median $14k · 8 announced
  4. + EconomyFair125 devs · median $3.8k · 151 announced
  5. + ManagementFair182 devs · median $3.5k · 230 announced
  6. + CrimeFair10 devs · median $3.4k · 14 announced
  7. + Level EditorFair15 devs · median $3.4k · 17 announced
  8. + Artificial IntelligenceFair46 devs · median $2.7k · 30 announced
  9. + SokobanFair12 devs · median $2.4k · 9 announced
  10. + MythologyFair18 devs · median $2.4k · 20 announced
  11. + UnderwaterFair37 devs · median $2.3k · 37 announced
  12. + Combat RacingFair10 devs · median $2.2k · 12 announced

All 178 pairs on the Collectathon page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Digimon Story Time Stranger $69.99 15,845 89% 475k $33M (exactly $33,269,746) Media.Vision Inc.
River City Girls 2 older $39.99 1,552 85% 47k $1.9M (exactly $1,861,934) WayForward
Anomalous Coffee Machine 2 $6.99 753 81% 23k $158k (exactly $157,904) HoruBrain Interactive
Dragon Spirits 2 older $13.99 137 84% 4.1k $57k (exactly $57,499) FHNBHJ
Treasure Chest Clicker older $3.99 408 82% 12k $49k (exactly $48,838) Simon Eftestol
Lucky's Tale older $19.99 73 89% 2.2k $44k (exactly $43,778) Playful Corp.
Recolit older $14.99 88 87% 2.6k $40k (exactly $39,574) Image Labo, Marudice
Mr. Run and Jump older $24.99 45 95% 1.4k $34k (exactly $33,736) Graphite Lab, Heavy Horse Games
Takoyaki Party Survival older $2.99 222 94% 6.7k $20k (exactly $19,913) KIMIDORI SOFT
猫猫旅行社欢迎你! Momo's Revitalization Project! $24.99 24 91% 720 $18k (exactly $17,993) CyberStep, Inc.
Schoolgirl Card Pull Simulator $6.99 34 61% 1.0k $7.1k (exactly $7,130) Violet Soft
Silver Daze $14.99 14 100% 420 $6.3k (exactly $6,296) Sawyer Friend
BALL BOY Simulator $4.99 34 91% 1.0k $5.1k (exactly $5,090) EBA GAME
Ball Scooping Friends $3.99 36 83% 1.1k $4.3k (exactly $4,309) STP WORKS
Game Shop Panic $5.99 20 55% 600 $3.6k (exactly $3,594) Yagni Lab
Cook for Me Grandpa! $6.99 13 100% 390 $2.7k (exactly $2,726) Kamekichi Games
Yakiniku Party Survival $2.99 27 92% 810 $2.4k (exactly $2,422) KIMIDORI SOFT

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.