Do I ship it?

GamesCollectathonCollectathon + Mystery Dungeon

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Collectathon Mystery Dungeon?

Collectathon + Mystery Dungeon

Only 13 developers shipped a Collectathon Mystery Dungeon in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Elin, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 18 more are announced, ×3.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $120 in the last 2 years and $240 over 4, against a market of $480 for a 4 / 10 build. 5 developers shipped in the last year and 18 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.3 times the market baseline, revenue down 70% on the market, 18 announced, ×3.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Collectathon + Mystery Dungeon
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 13
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $359 → $2.9k → $60 → $120 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Collectathon + Mystery Dungeon: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 13
Bottom 30% $30 (exactly $30)
Median $120 (exactly $120)
Top 25% $1.0k (exactly $1,048)
Top 5% $5.0M (exactly $5,041,078)
Developers, 2 yr 13
Released games 42
Announced 18
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 70% on the market, supply 40% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 2%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Collectathon
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Mystery Dungeon
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Collectathon, Mystery Dungeon
Price point
$4.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 91% positive over 9,386 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $50, median $120, 1 in 4 over $1.0k, 1 in 20 over $5.0M.

3 in 10 developers made under $50. 9 in 10 of the 8 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 18 games are announced against 5 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Collectathon with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Job SimulatorStrong odds33 devs · median $33k · 42 announced
  2. + CapitalismStrong odds76 devs · median $6.2k · 75 announced
  3. + Turn-BasedFair7 devs · median $14k · 8 announced
  4. + EconomyFair125 devs · median $3.8k · 151 announced
  5. + ManagementFair182 devs · median $3.5k · 230 announced
  6. + CrimeFair10 devs · median $3.4k · 14 announced
  7. + Level EditorFair15 devs · median $3.4k · 17 announced
  8. + Artificial IntelligenceFair46 devs · median $2.7k · 30 announced
  9. + SokobanFair12 devs · median $2.4k · 9 announced
  10. + MythologyFair18 devs · median $2.4k · 20 announced
  11. + UnderwaterFair37 devs · median $2.3k · 37 announced
  12. + Combat RacingFair10 devs · median $2.2k · 12 announced

All 178 pairs on the Collectathon page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Elin · EA $19.99 8,406 93% 252k $5.0M (exactly $5,041,078) Lafrontier
Rustil: Eternal Labyrinth Castle $18.99 950 71% 29k $541k (exactly $541,215) KTMG LLC.
Full Mojo Rampage older $12.99 524 85% 16k $204k (exactly $204,203) Over the Top Games
ScrewUp older $9.99 259 68% 7.8k $78k (exactly $77,622) 199 Cents STUDIO
The Sealed Ampoule older $19.99 56 80% 1.7k $34k (exactly $33,583) CAVYHOUSE
Dreamstones older $11.99 45 91% 1.4k $16k (exactly $16,186) Windybeard
Labyrinth of the Witch older $14.99 25 60% 750 $11k (exactly $11,242) ORANGE CUBE, INC.
Adventure Rush older $9.99 21 100% 630 $6.3k (exactly $6,294) MrBoscheinen
Alt254 older $6.99 22 95% 660 $4.6k (exactly $4,613) Rename Studio
Third Wild older $5.99 17 52% 510 $3.1k (exactly $3,055) landing man studio
Seeker Quest: The Creature Collector $6.99 14 100% 420 $2.9k (exactly $2,936) Jestercraft
Launch And Loot $4.99 7 71% 210 $1.0k (exactly $1,048) Lua Ludica
Mini Merchant $5.99 4 75% 120 $719 (exactly $719) Astrarium Games Ltd.
Typomon Hunter $11.99 1 0% 30 $360 (exactly $360) Esoteric Games
Ella's Nightmare $3.99 1 100% 30 $120 (exactly $120) GamemancerStudios, Giovanni R. Saloun
Battlers Of Ekrasys $2.99 1 0% 30 $90 (exactly $90) Itchys
Entities $1.99 1 0% 30 $60 (exactly $60) Danilo Willian
Sports Girl: Village $0.99 1 0% 30 $30 (exactly $30) 2024-NGame

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.