Do I ship it?

GamesCollectathonCollectathon + Multiple Endings

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Collectathon Multiple Endings game?

Collectathon + Multiple Endings

Of 72 developers who shipped a Collectathon Multiple Endings game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 101 more are announced, ×2.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $720, ×1.5 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $270; 1 in 20 cleared $170k, ×376 the market median. Revenue is up 10% on the market; 101 games are announced against 39 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.5 times the market baseline, revenue up 10% on the market, 101 announced, ×2.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Collectathon + Multiple Endings
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 72
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $270 → $1.2k → $90k → $1.4k → $478 → $449 → $598 (still earning) → $1.2k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Collectathon + Multiple Endings: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 72
Bottom 30% $269 (exactly $269)
Median $719 (exactly $719)
Top 25% $9.0k (exactly $8,992)
Top 5% $178k (exactly $178,442)
Developers, 2 yr 72
Released games 200
Announced 101
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 10% on the market, supply 15% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Collectathon
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Multiple Endings
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Collectathon, Multiple Endings; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Exploration, Choices Matter
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $18.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Cute, Story Rich, Anime
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $18.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 96% positive over 7,627 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $270, median $720, 1 in 4 over $8.9k, 1 in 20 over $170k.

3 in 10 developers made under $270. 9 in 10 of the 51 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 101 games are announced against 39 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Collectathon with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Job SimulatorStrong odds33 devs · median $33k · 42 announced
  2. + CapitalismStrong odds76 devs · median $6.2k · 75 announced
  3. + Turn-BasedFair7 devs · median $14k · 8 announced
  4. + EconomyFair125 devs · median $3.8k · 151 announced
  5. + ManagementFair182 devs · median $3.5k · 230 announced
  6. + CrimeFair10 devs · median $3.4k · 14 announced
  7. + Level EditorFair15 devs · median $3.4k · 17 announced
  8. + Artificial IntelligenceFair46 devs · median $2.7k · 30 announced
  9. + SokobanFair12 devs · median $2.4k · 9 announced
  10. + MythologyFair18 devs · median $2.4k · 20 announced
  11. + UnderwaterFair37 devs · median $2.3k · 37 announced
  12. + Combat RacingFair10 devs · median $2.2k · 12 announced

All 178 pairs on the Collectathon page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
DevilConnection $16.66 1,951 98% 59k $975k (exactly $975,110) ChaoGames
Isles of Sea and Sky older $19.99 1,538 91% 46k $922k (exactly $922,339) Cicada Games
Funi Raccoon Game $11.99 1,683 99% 50k $605k (exactly $605,375) Crayon, Kit
Maid Cafe on Electric Street $18.99 595 82% 18k $339k (exactly $338,972) Adventurer's Tavern
Starstruck Vagabond older $19.99 559 86% 17k $335k (exactly $335,232) Ben 'Yahtzee' Croshaw
Cirno! Lifts a Boulder $5.99 993 97% 30k $178k (exactly $178,442) Alexander Golke
Disillusion ST $10.99 524 96% 16k $173k (exactly $172,763) Disillusion Dev, Disillusion Dev
World's End Club older $19.99 228 68% 6.8k $137k (exactly $136,732) IzanagiGames, Too Kyo Games, Grounding… (IzanagiGames, Too Kyo Games, Grounding Inc., ESQUADRA,inc.)
夏目友人帳 ~葉月の記~ $49.99 77 80% 2.3k $115k (exactly $115,477) Toydium
[DE:]Fanastasis older $19.99 177 96% 5.3k $106k (exactly $106,147) Mosamosa
Chicken Hill $2.99 1,134 99% 34k $102k (exactly $101,720) 梗立游戏
Valkyrie Saga $7.99 288 92% 8.6k $69k (exactly $69,034) Public Void
Interdimensional Vending Machine $7.99 185 84% 5.6k $44k (exactly $44,344) Neuroticfly Games
Playing House $6.99 197 94% 5.9k $41k (exactly $41,311) 鬱薔薇檸檬(UtubaraLemon)

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.