Do I ship it?

GamesCollectathonCollectathon + Medieval

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Medieval Collectathon game?

Collectathon + Medieval

Of 50 developers who shipped a Medieval Collectathon game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 76 more are announced, ×2.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.2k, ×2.5 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $360; 1 in 20 cleared $33k, ×70 the market median. Revenue is up 190% on the market; 76 games are announced against 31 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.5 times the market baseline, revenue up 190% on the market, 76 announced, ×2.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Collectathon + Medieval
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 50
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $987 → $718 → $600 → $1.9k → $1.2k → $719 → $1.2k (still earning) → $1.3k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Collectathon + Medieval: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 50
Bottom 30% $359 (exactly $359)
Median $1.2k (exactly $1,166)
Top 25% $3.9k (exactly $3,896)
Top 5% $33k (exactly $33,099)
Developers, 2 yr 50
Released games 130
Announced 76
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 190% on the market, supply 50% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Collectathon
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Medieval
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Collectathon; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Exploration, Idler, RPG
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $9.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Colorful, Top-Down
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $9.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 81% positive over 1,528 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $360, median $1.2k, 1 in 4 over $3.8k, 1 in 20 over $33k.

3 in 10 developers made under $360. Nearly all of the 26 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 76 games are announced against 31 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Collectathon with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Job SimulatorStrong odds33 devs · median $33k · 42 announced
  2. + CapitalismStrong odds76 devs · median $6.2k · 75 announced
  3. + Turn-BasedFair7 devs · median $14k · 8 announced
  4. + EconomyFair125 devs · median $3.8k · 151 announced
  5. + ManagementFair182 devs · median $3.5k · 230 announced
  6. + CrimeFair10 devs · median $3.4k · 14 announced
  7. + Level EditorFair15 devs · median $3.4k · 17 announced
  8. + Artificial IntelligenceFair46 devs · median $2.7k · 30 announced
  9. + SokobanFair12 devs · median $2.4k · 9 announced
  10. + MythologyFair18 devs · median $2.4k · 20 announced
  11. + UnderwaterFair37 devs · median $2.3k · 37 announced
  12. + Combat RacingFair10 devs · median $2.2k · 12 announced

All 178 pairs on the Collectathon page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Travellers Rest · EA older $17.99 16,538 87% 496k $8.9M (exactly $8,925,559) Isolated Games
DRAGON QUEST MONSTERS: The Dark Prince older $39.99 1,158 71% 35k $1.4M (exactly $1,389,253) Square Enix
Siralim Ultimate older $19.99 2,145 92% 64k $1.3M (exactly $1,286,356) Thylacine Studios
Siralim 3 older $14.99 881 94% 26k $396k (exactly $396,186) Thylacine Studios
9th Dawn III older $15.99 501 87% 15k $240k (exactly $240,330) Valorware
Siralim 2 older $14.99 427 92% 13k $192k (exactly $192,022) Thylacine Studios
Agrivore: Incremental Farming $6.99 494 70% 15k $104k (exactly $103,592) verty
Blacksmith of the Sand Kingdom older $19.99 161 73% 4.8k $97k (exactly $96,552) Rideon,Inc.
Old Coin Pusher Friends 2 older $3.99 426 90% 13k $51k (exactly $50,992) STP WORKS
Monk Took Book $8.99 123 98% 3.7k $33k (exactly $33,173) SquarePlay Games
The Dream Globe $2.99 369 94% 11k $33k (exactly $33,099) Roaming of Little Hammer
Gold and Graves $5.99 180 86% 5.4k $32k (exactly $32,346) Yoon
RoGlass $9.99 88 98% 2.6k $26k (exactly $26,374) James Castle
Glimvale : My Mini Overworld $5.99 100 92% 3.0k $18k (exactly $17,970) Milkshake Games
Smith & Dungeon: Crafting the Legendary Weapons $12.99 39 41% 1.2k $15k (exactly $15,198) Zoo Corporation
戦国英雄譚-Samurai Heroes- $9.99 47 89% 1.4k $14k (exactly $14,086) hizaniya games
AFKandia - Epoch of Idle $5.99 66 45% 2.0k $12k (exactly $11,860) Yang++ Game Studio
Heat 'n Hit: The Blacksmith Simulator · EA $10.99 22 45% 660 $7.3k (exactly $7,253) Barkino

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.