Do I ship it?

GamesCollectathonCollectathon + Life Sim

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Collectathon Life Sim?

Collectathon + Life Sim

Of 130 developers who shipped a Collectathon Life Sim in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 190 more are announced, ×2.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $3.1k, ×6.6 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $540; 1 in 20 cleared $300k, ×636 the market median. Revenue is down 40% on the market; 190 games are announced against 87 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 6.6 times the market baseline, revenue down 40% on the market, 190 announced, ×2.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Collectathon + Life Sim
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 130
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.6k → $7.2k → $3.7k → $1.5k → $6.2k → $4.4k → $1.5k (still earning) → $2.5k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Collectathon + Life Sim: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 130
Bottom 30% $535 (exactly $535)
Median $3.1k (exactly $3,144)
Top 25% $39k (exactly $39,424)
Top 5% $302k (exactly $302,129)
Developers, 2 yr 130
Released games 246
Announced 190
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.20

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 40% on the market, supply 80% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Collectathon
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Life Sim
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Collectathon, Life Sim; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Management, Immersive Sim
Price point
$6.20 typical · top 25% priced $17.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Relaxing, Cute, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $17.99 or above; the middle game at $6.20.

The top 10 games average 95% positive over 63,801 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $540, median $3.1k, 1 in 4 over $39k, 1 in 20 over $300k.

3 in 10 developers made under $540. 7 in 10 of the 63 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 190 games are announced against 87 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Collectathon with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Job SimulatorStrong odds33 devs · median $33k · 42 announced
  2. + CapitalismStrong odds76 devs · median $6.2k · 75 announced
  3. + Turn-BasedFair7 devs · median $14k · 8 announced
  4. + EconomyFair125 devs · median $3.8k · 151 announced
  5. + ManagementFair182 devs · median $3.5k · 230 announced
  6. + CrimeFair10 devs · median $3.4k · 14 announced
  7. + Level EditorFair15 devs · median $3.4k · 17 announced
  8. + Artificial IntelligenceFair46 devs · median $2.7k · 30 announced
  9. + SokobanFair12 devs · median $2.4k · 9 announced
  10. + MythologyFair18 devs · median $2.4k · 20 announced
  11. + UnderwaterFair37 devs · median $2.3k · 37 announced
  12. + Combat RacingFair10 devs · median $2.2k · 12 announced

All 178 pairs on the Collectathon page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
TCG Card Shop Simulator $19.99 47,357 96% 1.4M $28M (exactly $28,399,993) OPNeon Games
Travellers Rest · EA older $17.99 16,538 87% 496k $8.9M (exactly $8,925,559) Isolated Games
Tiny Bookshop $19.99 6,967 96% 209k $4.2M (exactly $4,178,110) neoludic games
Cozy Grove older $14.99 7,512 89% 225k $3.4M (exactly $3,378,146) Spry Fox
Littlewood older $14.99 6,083 93% 182k $2.7M (exactly $2,735,525) Sean Young
Ogu and the Secret Forest older $24.99 1,817 94% 55k $1.4M (exactly $1,362,205) Moonlab Studio, Sinkhole Studio
Teddy's Haven · EA $14.99 2,800 95% 84k $1.3M (exactly $1,259,160) Teddy Bear Games LLC
Placid Plastic Duck Simulator older $1.99 17,846 97% 535k $1.1M (exactly $1,065,406) turbolento games
Farlands $17.99 1,628 89% 49k $879k (exactly $878,632) JanduSoft, Eric Rodríguez
Supercar Collection Simulator $12.99 1,528 85% 46k $595k (exactly $595,462) Kiki Games
Card Shop Simulator Multiplayer $11.99 1,609 82% 48k $579k (exactly $578,757) ShaneGame
Cinnabunny $24.99 403 96% 12k $302k (exactly $302,129) Reky Studios
Anime Shop Simulator ✨ $14.99 589 73% 18k $265k (exactly $264,873) One More Time
World End Diner $16.99 415 93% 12k $212k (exactly $211,525) Andymente
Monster Lab Simulator · EA $12.99 505 70% 15k $197k (exactly $196,798) Round 3 Studios

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.