Do I ship it?

GamesCollectathonCollectathon + Investigation

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Collectathon Investigation game?

Collectathon + Investigation

Of 33 developers who shipped a Collectathon Investigation game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 42 more are announced, ×2.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $450, ×0.9 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $89; 1 in 20 cleared $80k, ×169 the market median. Revenue is down 65% on the market; 42 games are announced against 15 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 0.9 times the market baseline, revenue down 65% on the market, 42 announced, ×2.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Collectathon + Investigation
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 33
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.0k → $4.3k → $1.3k → $718 → $449 → $269 (still earning) → $0 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Collectathon + Investigation: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 33
Bottom 30% $89 (exactly $89)
Median $449 (exactly $449)
Top 25% $3.6k (exactly $3,597)
Top 5% $80k (exactly $80,101)
Developers, 2 yr 33
Released games 101
Announced 42
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 65% on the market, supply 15% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 18%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Collectathon
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Investigation
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Collectathon, Investigation; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Exploration, Puzzle
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $9.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Atmospheric, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $9.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 90% positive over 1,459 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $89, median $450, 1 in 4 over $3.5k, 1 in 20 over $80k.

3 in 10 developers made under $89. 9 in 10 of the 20 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 42 games are announced against 15 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Collectathon with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Job SimulatorStrong odds33 devs · median $33k · 42 announced
  2. + CapitalismStrong odds76 devs · median $6.2k · 75 announced
  3. + Turn-BasedFair7 devs · median $14k · 8 announced
  4. + EconomyFair125 devs · median $3.8k · 151 announced
  5. + ManagementFair182 devs · median $3.5k · 230 announced
  6. + CrimeFair10 devs · median $3.4k · 14 announced
  7. + Level EditorFair15 devs · median $3.4k · 17 announced
  8. + Artificial IntelligenceFair46 devs · median $2.7k · 30 announced
  9. + SokobanFair12 devs · median $2.4k · 9 announced
  10. + MythologyFair18 devs · median $2.4k · 20 announced
  11. + UnderwaterFair37 devs · median $2.3k · 37 announced
  12. + Combat RacingFair10 devs · median $2.2k · 12 announced

All 178 pairs on the Collectathon page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
沉默的蟋蟀 older $14.99 1,130 88% 34k $508k (exactly $508,161) 蓬莱飞鱼工作室
Logiart Grimoire older $19.99 336 94% 10k $201k (exactly $201,499) Jupiter Corporation
Tales From Off-Peak City Vol. 1 older $9.99 533 98% 16k $160k (exactly $159,740) Cosmo D
Digger: Galactic Treasures $4.99 711 87% 21k $106k (exactly $106,437) RainStyle games
MAKOTO WAKAIDO’s Case Files TRILOGY DELUXE older $12.99 259 77% 7.8k $101k (exactly $100,932) Hakababunko
Sophia the Traveler older $8.99 302 77% 9.1k $81k (exactly $81,449) Memo Gogo
Mosaic of The Pharaohs $8.99 297 92% 8.9k $80k (exactly $80,101) Mark Ffrench
Jeffrey Eggstein · EA $4.99 290 94% 8.7k $43k (exactly $43,413) Grabba Guild Games LLC
Within Skerry older $4.99 226 78% 6.8k $34k (exactly $33,832) Stanislaw Truchowski
Tad the Lost Explorer older $19.99 38 73% 1.1k $23k (exactly $22,789) Gammera Nest
Retro Relics $9.99 30 90% 900 $9.0k (exactly $8,991) HistoryXPlorer
MeiQi 2024 $14.99 14 100% 420 $6.3k (exactly $6,296) QZQ Studio
Mound of Music $9.99 19 78% 570 $5.7k (exactly $5,694) Elif Games
Sonar Scout $5.99 26 100% 780 $4.7k (exactly $4,672) Dan Schumacher, Hjalte Tagmose, Neil Do… (Dan Schumacher, Hjalte Tagmose, Neil Doppelmayr, Christoph Englert, Pontus Liljekvist, Hugo Roque)
The Fox Hare Disaster: Chapter One $3.99 33 96% 990 $4.0k (exactly $3,950) Dream Oni, Cosmic Boop, Valorware
Detective Club: Gallery of Shadows Collector's Edition $11.99 10 50% 300 $3.6k (exactly $3,597) Do Games Limited
HANGAR 8 $3.99 29 86% 870 $3.5k (exactly $3,471) Twin Tail Digital

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.