Do I ship it?

GamesCollectathonCollectathon + Incremental

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Collectathon Incremental game?

Collectathon + Incremental

Of 225 developers who shipped a Collectathon Incremental game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 290 more are announced.

Verdict: fair, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.7k, ×3.5 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, with 3 in 10 under $450. Revenue is up 55% on the market; 290 games are announced against 164 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.5 times the market baseline, revenue up 55% on the market, 290 announced, ×1.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Collectathon + Incremental
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 225
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $4.2k → $8.4k → $3.7k → $1.9k → $1.5k → $2.5k → $1.3k (still earning) → $1.6k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Collectathon + Incremental: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 225
Bottom 30% $449 (exactly $449)
Median $1.7k (exactly $1,676)
Top 25% $10k (exactly $10,431)
Top 5% $133k (exactly $133,160)
Developers, 2 yr 225
Released games 490
Announced 290
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 55% on the market, supply 135% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 19%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Collectathon
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Incremental
effort 1 / 10 · high · formulas and upgrade tables

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Collectathon, Incremental; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Idler, Management
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $6.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Relaxing, 2D, Colorful
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $6.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 95% positive over 54,169 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $450, median $1.7k, 1 in 4 over $10k, 1 in 20 over $130k.

3 in 10 developers made under $450. 7 in 10 of the 102 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 290 games are announced against 164 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Collectathon with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Job SimulatorStrong odds33 devs · median $33k · 42 announced
  2. + CapitalismStrong odds76 devs · median $6.2k · 75 announced
  3. + Turn-BasedFair7 devs · median $14k · 8 announced
  4. + EconomyFair125 devs · median $3.8k · 151 announced
  5. + ManagementFair182 devs · median $3.5k · 230 announced
  6. + CrimeFair10 devs · median $3.4k · 14 announced
  7. + Level EditorFair15 devs · median $3.4k · 17 announced
  8. + Artificial IntelligenceFair46 devs · median $2.7k · 30 announced
  9. + SokobanFair12 devs · median $2.4k · 9 announced
  10. + MythologyFair18 devs · median $2.4k · 20 announced
  11. + UnderwaterFair37 devs · median $2.3k · 37 announced
  12. + Combat RacingFair10 devs · median $2.2k · 12 announced

All 178 pairs on the Collectathon page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Cookie Clicker older $4.99 87,916 96% 2.6M $13M (exactly $13,161,025) Orteil, DashNet
Shelldiver $4.99 16,806 98% 504k $2.5M (exactly $2,515,858) Gagonfe
Chillquarium older $5.99 7,780 92% 233k $1.4M (exactly $1,398,066) Ben Reber
Outpath older $14.99 2,898 92% 87k $1.3M (exactly $1,303,231) David Moralejo Sánchez
Keep on Mining! $4.99 8,300 93% 249k $1.2M (exactly $1,242,510) EagleEye Games
Leaf it Alone $5.99 6,244 95% 187k $1.1M (exactly $1,122,047) Eternity
Garden Galaxy older $9.99 2,472 97% 74k $741k (exactly $740,858) Anneka Tran
Digseum $2.99 8,033 97% 241k $721k (exactly $720,560) Rat Monthly
Supermarket Chaos $4.99 3,266 92% 98k $489k (exactly $488,920) BunnyHop
Proverbs $8.99 1,786 96% 54k $482k (exactly $481,684) Mark Ffrench
Click the Button $3.99 3,849 93% 115k $461k (exactly $460,725) LoopCap
Fish to Dish: Idle Sushi $5.99 2,525 96% 76k $454k (exactly $453,742) Kygua Tech
Keep on Mining! - Worlds $6.99 1,899 80% 57k $398k (exactly $398,220) EagleEye Games
Sort Them Ducks $5.99 1,461 92% 44k $263k (exactly $262,542) Mr.Duck

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.