Do I ship it?

GamesCollectathonCollectathon + Idler

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Collectathon Idler?

Collectathon + Idler

Of 229 developers who shipped a Collectathon Idler in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 252 more are announced.

Verdict: fair, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.9k, ×4.1 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, with 3 in 10 under $450. Revenue is up 10% on the market; 252 games are announced against 156 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 4.1 times the market baseline, revenue up 10% on the market, 252 announced, ×1.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Collectathon + Idler
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 229
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $4.7k → $11k → $4.5k → $2.7k → $2.5k → $2.6k → $1.5k (still earning) → $1.3k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Collectathon + Idler: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 229
Bottom 30% $449 (exactly $449)
Median $1.9k (exactly $1,946)
Top 25% $12k (exactly $12,220)
Top 5% $108k (exactly $107,557)
Developers, 2 yr 229
Released games 414
Announced 252
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 10% on the market, supply 100% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 22%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Collectathon
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Idler
effort 1 / 10 · high · number growth curves and a UI

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Collectathon, Idler; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Incremental, Management
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $6.99 or above
Art
7 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Relaxing, Cute
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $6.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 95% positive over 47,723 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $450, median $1.9k, 1 in 4 over $12k, 1 in 20 over $100k.

3 in 10 developers made under $450. 7 in 10 of the 99 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 252 games are announced against 156 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Collectathon with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Job SimulatorStrong odds33 devs · median $33k · 42 announced
  2. + CapitalismStrong odds76 devs · median $6.2k · 75 announced
  3. + Turn-BasedFair7 devs · median $14k · 8 announced
  4. + EconomyFair125 devs · median $3.8k · 151 announced
  5. + ManagementFair182 devs · median $3.5k · 230 announced
  6. + CrimeFair10 devs · median $3.4k · 14 announced
  7. + Level EditorFair15 devs · median $3.4k · 17 announced
  8. + Artificial IntelligenceFair46 devs · median $2.7k · 30 announced
  9. + SokobanFair12 devs · median $2.4k · 9 announced
  10. + MythologyFair18 devs · median $2.4k · 20 announced
  11. + UnderwaterFair37 devs · median $2.3k · 37 announced
  12. + Combat RacingFair10 devs · median $2.2k · 12 announced

All 178 pairs on the Collectathon page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Cookie Clicker older $4.99 87,916 96% 2.6M $13M (exactly $13,161,025) Orteil, DashNet
Shelldiver $4.99 16,806 98% 504k $2.5M (exactly $2,515,858) Gagonfe
Chillquarium older $5.99 7,780 92% 233k $1.4M (exactly $1,398,066) Ben Reber
Keep on Mining! $4.99 8,300 93% 249k $1.2M (exactly $1,242,510) EagleEye Games
Placid Plastic Duck Simulator older $1.99 17,846 97% 535k $1.1M (exactly $1,065,406) turbolento games
Tiny Aquarium: Social Fishkeeping $7.49 3,386 95% 102k $761k (exactly $760,834) Lunheim Studios
Garden Galaxy older $9.99 2,472 97% 74k $741k (exactly $740,858) Anneka Tran
Digseum $2.99 8,033 97% 241k $721k (exactly $720,560) Rat Monthly
Click the Button $3.99 3,849 93% 115k $461k (exactly $460,725) LoopCap
Fish to Dish: Idle Sushi $5.99 2,525 96% 76k $454k (exactly $453,742) Kygua Tech
Keep on Mining! - Worlds $6.99 1,899 80% 57k $398k (exactly $398,220) EagleEye Games
My Little Life $5.99 1,043 89% 31k $187k (exactly $187,427) 9FingerGames
Budgie's Bug Shop $5.99 1,016 96% 30k $183k (exactly $182,575) Moon Lagoon
Bugtopia $5.99 866 92% 26k $156k (exactly $155,620) Nocturnal Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.