Do I ship it?

GamesCollectathonCollectathon + Historical

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Historical Collectathon game?

Collectathon + Historical

Of 25 developers who shipped a Historical Collectathon game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 33 more are announced, ×2.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.3k, ×2.1 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $240; 1 in 20 cleared $210k, ×341 the market median. Revenue is up 625% on the market; 33 games are announced against 12 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.1 times the market baseline, revenue up 625% on the market, 33 announced, ×2.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Collectathon + Historical
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 25
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $750 → $599 → $28k → $987 → $4.0k (still earning) → $4.2k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Collectathon + Historical: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 25
Bottom 30% $239 (exactly $239)
Median $1.3k (exactly $1,347)
Top 25% $7.0k (exactly $7,008)
Top 5% $214k (exactly $214,093)
Developers, 2 yr 25
Released games 64
Announced 33
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 625% on the market, supply 15% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Collectathon
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Historical
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Collectathon; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Puzzle, Logic, Incremental
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Relaxing, Pixel Graphics
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 96% positive over 2,732 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $240, median $1.3k, 1 in 4 over $7.0k, 1 in 20 over $210k.

3 in 10 developers made under $240. 7 in 10 of the 17 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 33 games are announced against 12 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Collectathon with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Job SimulatorStrong odds33 devs · median $33k · 42 announced
  2. + CapitalismStrong odds76 devs · median $6.2k · 75 announced
  3. + Turn-BasedFair7 devs · median $14k · 8 announced
  4. + EconomyFair125 devs · median $3.8k · 151 announced
  5. + ManagementFair182 devs · median $3.5k · 230 announced
  6. + CrimeFair10 devs · median $3.4k · 14 announced
  7. + Level EditorFair15 devs · median $3.4k · 17 announced
  8. + Artificial IntelligenceFair46 devs · median $2.7k · 30 announced
  9. + SokobanFair12 devs · median $2.4k · 9 announced
  10. + MythologyFair18 devs · median $2.4k · 20 announced
  11. + UnderwaterFair37 devs · median $2.3k · 37 announced
  12. + Combat RacingFair10 devs · median $2.2k · 12 announced

All 178 pairs on the Collectathon page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Hidden Through Time older $7.99 2,807 93% 84k $673k (exactly $672,838) Rogueside
Proverbs $8.99 1,786 96% 54k $482k (exactly $481,684) Mark Ffrench
A Tower Full of Cats older $5.99 2,304 99% 69k $414k (exactly $414,029) Devcats
Samurai Bringer older $9.99 1,012 87% 30k $303k (exactly $303,296) ALPHAWING Inc.
Juufuutei Raden™'s Guide for Pixel Museum $19.99 357 98% 11k $214k (exactly $214,093) Jupiter Corporation
Mosaic of The Pharaohs $8.99 297 92% 8.9k $80k (exactly $80,101) Mark Ffrench
ARIDA: Backland's Awakening older $3.39 634 91% 19k $64k (exactly $64,478) Aoca Game Lab
Treasures of the Aegean older $19.99 82 86% 2.5k $49k (exactly $49,175) Undercoders
Mewseum: Masterpieces $6.99 133 98% 4.0k $28k (exactly $27,890) Climbing Goat Games
Tropicalia: a Brazilian Game older $14.99 61 90% 1.8k $27k (exactly $27,432) Paulo Henrique Franqueira
戦国英雄譚-Samurai Heroes- $9.99 47 89% 1.4k $14k (exactly $14,086) hizaniya games
Retro Relics $9.99 30 90% 900 $9.0k (exactly $8,991) HistoryXPlorer
Derby Heroines: Run, Bet, Win! $14.99 17 94% 510 $7.6k (exactly $7,645) SHINISE GAMES, MFC STUDIO
I Eat Paintings When Guards Aren't Looking $5.99 39 97% 1.2k $7.0k (exactly $7,008) Frog & Dove Games
UNDERGROUNDED $19.99 7 100% 210 $4.2k (exactly $4,198) Game Studio Inc.
Mewseum: Film Festival $6.99 19 100% 570 $4.0k (exactly $3,984) Climbing Goat Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.