Do I ship it?

GamesCollectathonCollectathon + Exploration

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Collectathon Exploration game?

Collectathon + Exploration

Of 483 developers who shipped a Collectathon Exploration game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 857 more are announced, ×3.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.2k, ×2.5 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $320; 1 in 20 cleared $300k, ×645 the market median. Revenue is up 105% on the market; 857 games are announced against 263 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.5 times the market baseline, revenue up 105% on the market, 857 announced, ×3.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Collectathon + Exploration
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 483
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.5k → $1.8k → $3.0k → $958 → $1.7k → $955 → $1.6k (still earning) → $776 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Collectathon + Exploration: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 483
Bottom 30% $314 (exactly $314)
Median $1.2k (exactly $1,199)
Top 25% $10k (exactly $10,294)
Top 5% $306k (exactly $306,447)
Developers, 2 yr 483
Released games 1,502
Announced 857
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 105% on the market, supply 10% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Collectathon
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Exploration
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Collectathon, Exploration; 3 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Action, Action-Adventure
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Cute, Colorful, Relaxing
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 91% positive over 29,239 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $320, median $1.2k, 1 in 4 over $10k, 1 in 20 over $300k.

3 in 10 developers made under $320. 8 in 10 of the 345 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 857 games are announced against 263 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Collectathon with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Job SimulatorStrong odds33 devs · median $33k · 42 announced
  2. + CapitalismStrong odds76 devs · median $6.2k · 75 announced
  3. + Turn-BasedFair7 devs · median $14k · 8 announced
  4. + EconomyFair125 devs · median $3.8k · 151 announced
  5. + ManagementFair182 devs · median $3.5k · 230 announced
  6. + CrimeFair10 devs · median $3.4k · 14 announced
  7. + Level EditorFair15 devs · median $3.4k · 17 announced
  8. + Artificial IntelligenceFair46 devs · median $2.7k · 30 announced
  9. + SokobanFair12 devs · median $2.4k · 9 announced
  10. + MythologyFair18 devs · median $2.4k · 20 announced
  11. + UnderwaterFair37 devs · median $2.3k · 37 announced
  12. + Combat RacingFair10 devs · median $2.2k · 12 announced

All 178 pairs on the Collectathon page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Temtem older $44.99 31,263 82% 938k $42M (exactly $42,195,671) Crema
A Hat in Time older $29.99 42,863 97% 1.3M $39M (exactly $38,563,841) Gears for Breakfast
Supraland older $19.99 12,376 95% 371k $7.4M (exactly $7,421,887) Supra Games
Pumpkin Jack older $29.99 7,416 91% 222k $6.7M (exactly $6,672,175) Evil Raptor
Cassette Beasts older $19.99 8,976 94% 269k $5.4M (exactly $5,382,907) Bytten Studio
Atelier Yumia: The Alchemist of Memories & the Envisioned Land $69.99 2,534 64% 76k $5.3M (exactly $5,320,640) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
Elin · EA $19.99 8,406 93% 252k $5.0M (exactly $5,041,078) Lafrontier
Webbed older $9.99 13,820 97% 415k $4.1M (exactly $4,141,854) Sbug Games
Atelier Sophie 2: The Alchemist of the Mysterious Dream older $59.99 2,166 94% 65k $3.9M (exactly $3,898,150) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
SimplePlanes older $12.99 9,811 93% 294k $3.8M (exactly $3,823,347) Jundroo, LLC
SpongeBob SquarePants: Titans of the Tide $39.99 1,151 93% 35k $1.4M (exactly $1,380,855) Purple Lamp
Supraworld · EA $29.99 1,471 91% 44k $1.3M (exactly $1,323,459) Supra Games
Teddy's Haven · EA $14.99 2,800 95% 84k $1.3M (exactly $1,259,160) Teddy Bear Games LLC
Yooka-Replaylee $29.99 1,045 92% 31k $940k (exactly $940,186) Playtonic Games
Farlands $17.99 1,628 89% 49k $879k (exactly $878,632) JanduSoft, Eric Rodríguez
Shin chan: Shiro and the Coal Town $29.99 837 95% 25k $753k (exactly $753,049) h.a.n.d., Inc.
Digseum $2.99 8,033 97% 241k $721k (exactly $720,560) Rat Monthly
Welcome to Elderfield $17.99 1,334 87% 40k $720k (exactly $719,960) Chris Cote

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.