Do I ship it?

GamesCollectathonCollectathon + Dystopian

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Dystopian Collectathon game?

Collectathon + Dystopian

Of 21 developers who shipped a Dystopian Collectathon game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 25 more are announced, ×2.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $300, ×0.6 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $240. 25 games are announced against 12 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.1 per shipper, while revenue is up 440% on the market.

Deciding numbers: median 0.6 times the market baseline, revenue up 440% on the market, 25 announced, ×2.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Collectathon + Dystopian
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 21
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $3.0k → $239 → $298 → $299 → $899 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Collectathon + Dystopian: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 21
Bottom 30% $239 (exactly $239)
Median $299 (exactly $299)
Top 25% $5.7k (exactly $5,694)
Top 5% $158k (exactly $157,904)
Developers, 2 yr 21
Released games 42
Announced 25
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 440% on the market, supply 35% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 19%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Collectathon
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Dystopian
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Collectathon; 3 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Adventure, Action
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $11.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Atmospheric, Cute
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $11.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 89% positive over 2,500 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $240, median $300, 1 in 4 over $5.6k, 1 in 20 over $150k.

3 in 10 developers made under $240. 8 in 10 of the 12 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 25 games are announced against 12 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Collectathon with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Job SimulatorStrong odds33 devs · median $33k · 42 announced
  2. + CapitalismStrong odds76 devs · median $6.2k · 75 announced
  3. + Turn-BasedFair7 devs · median $14k · 8 announced
  4. + EconomyFair125 devs · median $3.8k · 151 announced
  5. + ManagementFair182 devs · median $3.5k · 230 announced
  6. + CrimeFair10 devs · median $3.4k · 14 announced
  7. + Level EditorFair15 devs · median $3.4k · 17 announced
  8. + Artificial IntelligenceFair46 devs · median $2.7k · 30 announced
  9. + SokobanFair12 devs · median $2.4k · 9 announced
  10. + MythologyFair18 devs · median $2.4k · 20 announced
  11. + UnderwaterFair37 devs · median $2.3k · 37 announced
  12. + Combat RacingFair10 devs · median $2.2k · 12 announced

All 178 pairs on the Collectathon page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
CICADAMATA" $9.99 1,419 96% 43k $425k (exactly $425,274) ✿ flowergarden
Tales From Off-Peak City Vol. 1 older $9.99 533 98% 16k $160k (exactly $159,740) Cosmo D
Anomalous Coffee Machine 2 $6.99 753 81% 23k $158k (exactly $157,904) HoruBrain Interactive
tomorrow won't come for those without ██████ older $1.99 975 93% 29k $58k (exactly $58,208) etherane
Chipmatic $11.99 158 65% 4.7k $57k (exactly $56,833) Molter
Blood Facsimile · EA $17.99 59 98% 1.8k $32k (exactly $31,842) Rene McCarthy
MatchR: Now Hiring older $4.99 70 90% 2.1k $10k (exactly $10,479) Delirium Tremens Games
Wavekin $9.99 28 100% 840 $8.4k (exactly $8,392) La Folie Studio
Idle Trillionaire older $5.00 41 82% 1.2k $6.2k (exactly $6,150) The Slanted Room
Mound of Music $9.99 19 78% 570 $5.7k (exactly $5,694) Elif Games
GutBuster $4.99 38 100% 1.1k $5.7k (exactly $5,689) RoyalJellySoftware
CONCRETE $1.99 23 82% 690 $1.4k (exactly $1,373) Benjamin Pilbrow
Void Jump VR $14.99 2 50% 60 $899 (exactly $899) LemmoLab
Fantasy Waifu Collector $19.99 1 100% 30 $600 (exactly $600) SyKoHPaTh

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.