Do I ship it?

GamesCollectathonCollectathon + Detective

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Detective Collectathon game?

Collectathon + Detective

Of 25 developers who shipped a Detective Collectathon game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 35 more are announced, ×2.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $360 in the last 2 years and $420 over 4, against a market of $480 for a 4 / 10 build. 14 developers shipped in the last year and 35 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.8 times the market baseline, revenue down 65% on the market, 35 announced, ×2.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Collectathon + Detective
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 25
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $297 → $2.1k → $449 → $2.4k → $419 → $269 (still earning) → $120 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Collectathon + Detective: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 25
Bottom 30% $120 (exactly $120)
Median $359 (exactly $359)
Top 25% $1.4k (exactly $1,439)
Top 5% $82k (exactly $82,482)
Developers, 2 yr 25
Released games 60
Announced 35
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 65% on the market, supply 25% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Collectathon
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Detective
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Collectathon; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Exploration, Puzzle, Hidden Object
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Cute, Family Friendly
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 90% positive over 2,041 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $120, median $360, 1 in 4 over $1.4k, 1 in 20 over $82k.

3 in 10 developers made under $120. 9 in 10 of the 13 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 35 games are announced against 14 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Collectathon with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Job SimulatorStrong odds33 devs · median $33k · 42 announced
  2. + CapitalismStrong odds76 devs · median $6.2k · 75 announced
  3. + Turn-BasedFair7 devs · median $14k · 8 announced
  4. + EconomyFair125 devs · median $3.8k · 151 announced
  5. + ManagementFair182 devs · median $3.5k · 230 announced
  6. + CrimeFair10 devs · median $3.4k · 14 announced
  7. + Level EditorFair15 devs · median $3.4k · 17 announced
  8. + Artificial IntelligenceFair46 devs · median $2.7k · 30 announced
  9. + SokobanFair12 devs · median $2.4k · 9 announced
  10. + MythologyFair18 devs · median $2.4k · 20 announced
  11. + UnderwaterFair37 devs · median $2.3k · 37 announced
  12. + Combat RacingFair10 devs · median $2.2k · 12 announced

All 178 pairs on the Collectathon page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Supraworld · EA $29.99 1,471 91% 44k $1.3M (exactly $1,323,459) Supra Games
Logiart Grimoire older $19.99 336 94% 10k $201k (exactly $201,499) Jupiter Corporation
Shelve the Potions! $5.99 459 87% 14k $82k (exactly $82,482) Knight Owl Games
Sunshine Shuffle older $9.99 156 76% 4.7k $47k (exactly $46,753) Strange Scaffold
Who is Abby older $19.99 77 79% 2.3k $46k (exactly $46,177) CyberFlux Games, Gabro Media
Mexico, 1921. A Deep Slumber. older $19.99 45 86% 1.4k $27k (exactly $26,986) Mácula Interactive
Hodgepodge Hunch older $4.99 140 93% 4.2k $21k (exactly $20,958) uracon
Fantastic Findings Hidden Seasons $11.99 29 89% 870 $10k (exactly $10,431) Shapeshift Entertainment ApS
Abnormal1999:The Compass and the Sand older $2.99 74 98% 2.2k $6.6k (exactly $6,638) QZQ Studio
MeiQi 2024 $14.99 14 100% 420 $6.3k (exactly $6,296) QZQ Studio
Detective Club: Gallery of Shadows Collector's Edition $11.99 10 50% 300 $3.6k (exactly $3,597) Do Games Limited
Cats Visiting Christmas Town $1.99 40 90% 1.2k $2.4k (exactly $2,388) AGE Zero, Purrfect
Just Find It 4 $11.99 4 50% 120 $1.4k (exactly $1,439) Tiny Little Lion
The Newton Mystery $5.99 8 100% 240 $1.4k (exactly $1,438) In The Snow Studios
Dead Wrong Detective · EA $12.34 2 50% 60 $740 (exactly $740) NITOPU
Vampire Prison $5.99 4 50% 120 $719 (exactly $719) MYJIKA INC.

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.