Do I ship it?

GamesCollectathonCollectathon + Deckbuilding

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Collectathon Deckbuilding?

Collectathon + Deckbuilding

Of 37 developers who shipped a Collectathon Deckbuilding in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 56 more are announced, ×2.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $450, ×0.9 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $240; 1 in 20 cleared $780k, ×1659 the market median. Revenue is down 50% on the market; 56 games are announced against 21 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 0.9 times the market baseline, revenue down 50% on the market, 56 announced, ×2.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Collectathon + Deckbuilding
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 37
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $36k → $5.4k → $179 → $2.4k → $1.1k → $5.8k → $6.9k (still earning) → $180 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Collectathon + Deckbuilding: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 37
Bottom 30% $238 (exactly $238)
Median $449 (exactly $449)
Top 25% $22k (exactly $22,178)
Top 5% $788k (exactly $788,203)
Developers, 2 yr 37
Released games 67
Announced 56
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 50% on the market, supply 30% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 21%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Collectathon
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Deckbuilding
effort 3 / 10 · high · card pools and run logic

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Collectathon, Deckbuilding; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Card Battler, Card Game, RPG
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $15.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Anime, Story Rich
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $15.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 88% positive over 15,167 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $240, median $450, 1 in 4 over $22k, 1 in 20 over $780k.

3 in 10 developers made under $240. 8 in 10 of the 19 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 56 games are announced against 21 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Collectathon with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Job SimulatorStrong odds33 devs · median $33k · 42 announced
  2. + CapitalismStrong odds76 devs · median $6.2k · 75 announced
  3. + Turn-BasedFair7 devs · median $14k · 8 announced
  4. + EconomyFair125 devs · median $3.8k · 151 announced
  5. + ManagementFair182 devs · median $3.5k · 230 announced
  6. + CrimeFair10 devs · median $3.4k · 14 announced
  7. + Level EditorFair15 devs · median $3.4k · 17 announced
  8. + Artificial IntelligenceFair46 devs · median $2.7k · 30 announced
  9. + SokobanFair12 devs · median $2.4k · 9 announced
  10. + MythologyFair18 devs · median $2.4k · 20 announced
  11. + UnderwaterFair37 devs · median $2.3k · 37 announced
  12. + Combat RacingFair10 devs · median $2.2k · 12 announced

All 178 pairs on the Collectathon page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
INAZUMA ELEVEN: Victory Road $69.99 11,180 88% 335k $23M (exactly $23,474,646) LEVEL5 Inc.
DRAGON QUEST MONSTERS: The Dark Prince older $39.99 1,158 71% 35k $1.4M (exactly $1,389,253) Square Enix
Mega Man Star Force Legacy Collection $39.99 657 96% 20k $788k (exactly $788,203) CAPCOM Co., Ltd.
Card Shop Simulator Multiplayer $11.99 1,609 82% 48k $579k (exactly $578,757) ShaneGame
9th Dawn Remake $15.99 514 86% 15k $247k (exactly $246,566) Valorware
Disillusion ST $10.99 524 96% 16k $173k (exactly $172,763) Disillusion Dev, Disillusion Dev
Placid Plastic Deck - A Quiet Quest $12.99 208 80% 6.2k $81k (exactly $81,058) turbolento games, Fantastico Studio
Farm Keeper older $4.99 390 91% 12k $58k (exactly $58,383) Cuddle Code
SOULVARS older $16.99 70 78% 2.1k $36k (exactly $35,679) ginolabo, SUCCESS Corp.
Gold and Graves $5.99 180 86% 5.4k $32k (exactly $32,346) Yoon
FeeBay Simulator $5.99 167 91% 5.0k $30k (exactly $30,010) Lake Country Games
Football Rising:Zero to Hero $14.99 54 90% 1.6k $24k (exactly $24,284) Den Spade
The Last Craftsman $9.99 74 94% 2.2k $22k (exactly $22,178) AuraTummyache

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.