Do I ship it?

Games › Collectathon › Collectathon + Dating Sim

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Collectathon Dating Sim?

Collectathon + Dating Sim

Of 28 developers who shipped a Collectathon Dating Sim in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 42 more are announced, ×3.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $3.1k, ×6.4 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $360; 1 in 20 cleared $130k, ×288 the market median. Revenue is down 30% on the market; 42 games are announced against 11 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 6.4 times the market baseline, revenue down 30% on the market, 42 announced, ×3.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Collectathon + Dating Sim
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 28
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $600 → $2.9k → $8.6k → $1.4k → $14k → $12k → $239 (still earning) → $4.2k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Collectathon + Dating Sim: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 28
Bottom 30% $359 (exactly $359)
Median $3.1k (exactly $3,058)
Top 25% $24k (exactly $24,284)
Top 5% $137k (exactly $136,663)
Developers, 2 yr 28
Released games 105
Announced 42
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $16.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 30% on the market, supply 40% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 5%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Collectathon
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Dating Sim
effort 2 / 10 · high · effort 2 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Collectathon, Dating Sim; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Exploration, Adventure, Character Customization
Price point
$16.99 typical · top 25% priced $18.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Anime, Cute, 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $18.99 or above; the middle game at $16.99.

The top 10 games average 90% positive over 2,885 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $360, median $3.1k, 1 in 4 over $24k, 1 in 20 over $130k.

3 in 10 developers made under $360. 8 in 10 of the 32 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 42 games are announced against 11 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Collectathon with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Job SimulatorStrong odds33 devs · median $33k · 42 announced
  2. + CapitalismStrong odds76 devs · median $6.2k · 75 announced
  3. + Turn-BasedFair7 devs · median $14k · 8 announced
  4. + EconomyFair125 devs · median $3.8k · 151 announced
  5. + ManagementFair182 devs · median $3.5k · 230 announced
  6. + CrimeFair10 devs · median $3.4k · 14 announced
  7. + Level EditorFair15 devs · median $3.4k · 17 announced
  8. + Artificial IntelligenceFair46 devs · median $2.7k · 30 announced
  9. + SokobanFair12 devs · median $2.4k · 9 announced
  10. + MythologyFair18 devs · median $2.4k · 20 announced
  11. + UnderwaterFair37 devs · median $2.3k · 37 announced
  12. + Combat RacingFair10 devs · median $2.2k · 12 announced

All 178 pairs on the Collectathon page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Mosaique Neko Waifus 4 2021 · $637k Mosaique Neko Waifus 2 2020 · $384k Maid Cafe on Electric Street 2024 · $339k Love Tavern 2023 · $280k Mosaique Neko Waifus 3 2020 · $275k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Mosaique Neko Waifus 4 older $4.99 4,255 94% 128k $637k (exactly $636,974) Lil Hentai Games
Mosaique Neko Waifus 2 older $4.99 2,563 94% 77k $384k (exactly $383,681) Lil Hentai Games
Maid Cafe on Electric Street $18.99 595 82% 18k $339k (exactly $338,972) Adventurer's Tavern
Love Tavern older $11.99 778 73% 23k $280k (exactly $279,847) Secret Labo
Mosaique Neko Waifus 3 older $4.99 1,840 94% 55k $275k (exactly $275,448) Lil Hentai Games
Mosaique Neko Waifus 5 older $5.99 1,328 93% 40k $239k (exactly $238,642) Lil Hentai Games
Garage: Bad Dream Adventure older $19.90 364 97% 11k $217k (exactly $217,308) 作場金属製作所 Sakuba Metal Works, SmokymonkeyS
Old School older $14.99 442 83% 13k $199k (exactly $198,767) MDickie
Hachishaku $9.99 456 85% 14k $137k (exactly $136,663) Trash Panda Games
Chicken Hill $2.99 1,134 99% 34k $102k (exactly $101,720) 梗立游戏
Cumrooms $11.99 166 86% 5.0k $60k (exactly $59,710) Moon Loom Studio
MODEL Debut3 #nicola $39.99 34 79% 1.0k $41k (exactly $40,790) 株式会社ラクジン
Desktop Kitten Girl $3.99 277 86% 8.3k $33k (exactly $33,157) KDream
Football Rising:Zero to Hero $14.99 54 90% 1.6k $24k (exactly $24,284) Den Spade
猫猫旅行社欢迎你！ Momo's Revitalization Project! $24.99 24 91% 720 $18k (exactly $17,993) CyberStep, Inc.
花奴令 Huanu Poems $3.99 115 91% 3.5k $14k (exactly $13,766) Fishfarms, Hokyin Studio
Reap and Sow $12.99 30 80% 900 $12k (exactly $11,691) MrFishess, Jd

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.