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Should I ship a Trading Choose Your Own Adventure game?
Trading + Choose Your Own Adventure
Only 15 developers shipped a Trading Choose Your Own Adventure game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Lugh World, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 54 more are announced, ×5.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $1.5k, ×3.2 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $450; 1 in 20 cleared $200k, ×434 the market median. Revenue is up 205% on the market; 54 games are announced against 10 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $449 (exactly $449) |
|---|---|
| Median | $1.5k (exactly $1,498) |
| Top 25% | $7.7k (exactly $7,727) |
| Top 5% | $206k (exactly $205,963) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 15 |
| Released games | 54 |
| Announced | 54 |
| Effort | 4 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $6.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 205% on the market, supply 100% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 28%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Trading
- effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
- Choose Your Own Adventure
- effort 2 / 10 · high · branching text with light state
What it takes
- Effort
- 4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
- Systems
- Trading, Choose Your Own Adventure; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Exploration, Open World, Simulation
- Price point
- $6.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
- Art
- 5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Relaxing
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.
The top 10 games average 69% positive over 747 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $450. 9 in 10 of the 8 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 54 games are announced against 10 developers who shipped in the last year, ×5.4 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Trading with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + MiningFair
- + Score AttackFair
- + MMORPGPoor odds
- + Character CustomizationPoor odds
- + Online Co-OpPoor odds
- + Co-opPoor odds
- + FlightPoor odds
- + SportsPoor odds
- + CollectathonPoor odds
- + PhysicsPoor odds
- + DrivingPoor odds
- + LootPoor odds
Comparable games
Avorion 2020 · $9.7M 
《蜀山：初章》买断版 2022 · $4.3M 
Sid Meier's Pirates! 2005 · $1.9M 
Vagrus - The Riven Realms 2021 · $1.6M 
Slaves of Rome 2024 · $1.4M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Avorion | older | $24.99 | 13,001 90% | 390k | $9.7M (exactly $9,746,850) | Boxelware |
| | 《蜀山：初章》买断版 | older | $24.99 | 5,772 74% | 173k | $4.3M (exactly $4,327,268) | 重楼工作室 |
| | Sid Meier's Pirates! | older | $9.99 | 6,198 94% | 186k | $1.9M (exactly $1,857,541) | Firaxis Games |
| | Vagrus - The Riven Realms | older | $29.99 | 1,746 84% | 52k | $1.6M (exactly $1,570,876) | Lost Pilgrims Studio |
| | Slaves of Rome | older | $24.99 | 1,924 73% | 58k | $1.4M (exactly $1,442,423) | Biggus Diccus Games |
 | Sailwind | · EA older | $19.99 | 2,312 89% | 69k | $1.4M (exactly $1,386,506) | Raw Lion Workshop |
 | The Oregon Trail | older | $29.99 | 1,220 79% | 37k | $1.1M (exactly $1,097,634) | Gameloft |
 | Windward | older | $9.99 | 2,668 79% | 80k | $800k (exactly $799,600) | Tasharen Entertainment Inc. |
 | Pumping Simulator 2 | older | $11.99 | 1,645 91% | 49k | $592k (exactly $591,706) | Lance Games |
 | Lugh World | · EA | $14.99 | 458 68% | 14k | $206k (exactly $205,963) | Lughsoft |
 | Sail the Seas | $19.99 | 140 76% | 4.2k | $84k (exactly $83,958) | Viking Game Studio | |
 | Dig & Deal | $9.99 | 29 75% | 870 | $8.7k (exactly $8,691) | ToYa Games | |
 | 中年失业模拟器2-When a man lose his job 2 | $5.99 | 43 60% | 1.3k | $7.7k (exactly $7,727) | Kwing works | |
 | Silk Roads II: Paths of Fortune | $9.99 | 24 75% | 720 | $7.2k (exactly $7,193) | Priory Games | |
 | RolemIAster | · EA | $5.99 | 23 56% | 690 | $4.1k (exactly $4,133) | ABAFE |
 | 四方行 | $4.99 | 17 76% | 510 | $2.5k (exactly $2,545) | ikarosfd | |
 | Road To Wealth | $9.99 | 5 60% | 150 | $1.5k (exactly $1,498) | Konithir | |
 | Wasteland Shop Simulator | $9.99 | 5 0% | 150 | $1.5k (exactly $1,498) | Fargamer Studios Ltd | |
 | Exploration | $6.99 | 3 66% | 90 | $629 (exactly $629) | Software 2000 |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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