Do I ship it?

GamesSurvival HorrorSurvival Horror + Choose Your Own Adventure

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Choose Your Own Adventure Survival Horror?

Survival Horror + Choose Your Own Adventure

Of 79 developers who shipped a Choose Your Own Adventure Survival Horror in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 115 more are announced, ×2.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $960, ×1.5 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $360; 1 in 20 cleared $330k, ×526 the market median. Revenue is down 75% on the market; 115 games are announced against 42 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.5 times the market baseline, revenue down 75% on the market, 115 announced, ×2.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Survival Horror + Choose Your Own Adventure
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 79
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $5.1k → $1.6k → $2.3k → $535 → $6.0k → $3.4k → $599 (still earning) → $449 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Survival Horror + Choose Your Own Adventure: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 79
Bottom 30% $359 (exactly $359)
Median $958 (exactly $958)
Top 25% $14k (exactly $13,903)
Top 5% $331k (exactly $330,569)
Developers, 2 yr 79
Released games 209
Announced 115
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 75% on the market, supply 10% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 8%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Survival Horror
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Choose Your Own Adventure
effort 2 / 10 · high · branching text with light state

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Survival Horror, Choose Your Own Adventure; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Visual Novel, Choices Matter
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Atmospheric, Dark, Story Rich
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 91% positive over 35,033 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $360, median $960, 1 in 4 over $13k, 1 in 20 over $330k.

3 in 10 developers made under $360. 7 in 10 of the 43 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 115 games are announced against 42 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Survival Horror with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVFair13 devs · median $31k · 14 announced
  2. + DrivingFair20 devs · median $4.9k · 25 announced
  3. + Tower DefenseFair14 devs · median $1.9k · 16 announced
  4. + IncrementalFair16 devs · median $1.6k · 19 announced
  5. + SnowFair17 devs · median $1.2k · 15 announced
  6. + SportsFair5 devs · median $959 · 3 announced
  7. + Outbreak SimFair22 devs · median $958 · 24 announced
  8. + 3D PlatformerFair111 devs · median $539 · 104 announced
  9. + Boomer ShooterFair27 devs · median $449 · 28 announced
  10. + Turn-Based CombatPoor odds10 devs · median $64k · 42 announced
  11. + LGBTQ+Poor odds17 devs · median $52k · 21 announced
  12. + Spectacle fighterPoor odds8 devs · median $52k · 12 announced

All 159 pairs on the Survival Horror page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
DayZ older $49.99 387,850 78% 12M $582M (exactly $581,658,645) Bohemia Interactive
Sultan's Game $24.99 25,061 93% 752k $19M (exactly $18,788,232) Double Cross
The Walking Dead: Michonne - A Telltale Miniseries older $14.99 6,047 80% 181k $2.7M (exactly $2,719,336) Telltale Games
Your Turn To Die -Death Game By Majority- · EA older $16.99 4,122 97% 124k $2.1M (exactly $2,100,983) Nankidai
Directive 8020 $49.99 1,337 63% 40k $2.0M (exactly $2,005,099) Supermassive Games
The Test older $1.99 19,599 96% 588k $1.2M (exactly $1,170,060) Randumb Studios
Saiko no sutoka older $4.99 3,613 91% 108k $541k (exactly $540,866) Habupain
YKMET: Strade $14.99 1,189 98% 36k $535k (exactly $534,693) Gatobob
The Price Of Flesh older $14.99 1,038 96% 31k $467k (exactly $466,789) Gatobob
Death Come True older $15.99 904 76% 27k $434k (exactly $433,649) IzanagiGames, Too Kyo Games, ESQUADRA,i… (IzanagiGames, Too Kyo Games, ESQUADRA,inc.)
THRESHOLD $9.99 1,103 84% 33k $331k (exactly $330,569) Julien Eveillé
SAEKO: Giantess Dating Sim $14.99 715 87% 21k $322k (exactly $321,536) SAFE HAVN STUDIO
The Cabin Factory $2.99 3,455 90% 104k $310k (exactly $309,914) International Cat Studios
Who's at the door? $4.99 1,492 89% 45k $223k (exactly $223,352) SKONEC Entertainment
Pirates VR: Jolly Roger $19.99 212 76% 6.4k $127k (exactly $127,136) Split Light Studio
Lustful Dead 🔞 $9.99 267 49% 8.0k $80k (exactly $80,020) BanzaiProject
Heart of the Forest $12.99 202 70% 6.1k $79k (exactly $78,719) Trapped Predator

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.