Do I ship it?

GamesRunnerRunner + Choose Your Own Adventure

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Choose Your Own Adventure Runner?

Runner + Choose Your Own Adventure

Only 18 developers shipped a Choose Your Own Adventure Runner in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, SPHERE ROLLER, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 13 more are announced.

Verdict: dead, for a 3 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $450 in the last 2 years and $180 over 4, against a market of $480 for a 3 / 10 build. 7 developers shipped in the last year and 13 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.9 times the market baseline, revenue down 90% on the market, 13 announced, ×1.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Runner + Choose Your Own Adventure
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 18
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $89 → $1.0k → $90 → $1.9k → $480 → $30
Outcomes for Runner + Choose Your Own Adventure: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 18
Bottom 30% $90 (exactly $90)
Median $446 (exactly $446)
Top 25% $1.9k (exactly $1,884)
Top 5% $16k (exactly $16,497)
Developers, 2 yr 18
Released games 52
Announced 13
Effort 3 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $2.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 90% on the market, supply 35% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Runner
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Choose Your Own Adventure
effort 2 / 10 · high · branching text with light state

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
Systems
Runner, Choose Your Own Adventure; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Arcade, Physics
Price point
$2.99 typical · top 25% priced $49.99 or above
Art
8 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Cute
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $49.99 or above; the middle game at $2.99.

The top 10 games average 91% positive over 217 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $90, median $450, 1 in 4 over $1.8k, 1 in 20 over $16k.

3 in 10 developers made under $90. All of the 14 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 13 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Runner with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + LootFair8 devs · median $1.6k · 10 announced
  2. + Local MultiplayerFair23 devs · median $1.3k · 30 announced
  3. + PsychologicalFair14 devs · median $839 · 12 announced
  4. + IdlerFair16 devs · median $838 · 8 announced
  5. + Visual NovelFair12 devs · median $750 · 11 announced
  6. + Time AttackFair15 devs · median $599 · 10 announced
  7. + FPSLong shot39 devs · median $958 · 43 announced
  8. + 4 Player LocalPoor odds12 devs · median $2.4k · 16 announced
  9. + MusicPoor odds16 devs · median $1.2k · 20 announced
  10. + Co-opPoor odds38 devs · median $1.0k · 64 announced
  11. + Online Co-OpPoor odds40 devs · median $898 · 64 announced
  12. + Interactive FictionPoor odds10 devs · median $839 · 16 announced

All 123 pairs on the Runner page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
ALTF4 older $2.99 9,452 80% 284k $848k (exactly $847,844) PUMPKIM
SPHERE ROLLER $49.99 11 100% 330 $16k (exactly $16,497) Gamesforgames
Hobby Horse $14.99 29 89% 870 $13k (exactly $13,041) Games Incubator
Only Out $4.99 40 95% 1.2k $6.0k (exactly $5,988) Shark Studio
Gas Gas Rocket! older $9.99 12 100% 360 $3.6k (exactly $3,596) Gamesforgames
ZXC $4.99 21 95% 630 $3.1k (exactly $3,144) JJGames
Cave Explorer older $4.99 15 73% 450 $2.2k (exactly $2,246) CnockCnock
Vigaro Runner older $4.99 13 76% 390 $1.9k (exactly $1,946) Tero Lunkka, Valkeala Software
Dino running from a FURRY: GAMESFORFARM $2.99 21 100% 630 $1.9k (exactly $1,884) Piece Of Voxel, Gamesforfarm
Good Mourning older $2.99 21 90% 630 $1.9k (exactly $1,884) Platonic Partnership
MEMOLOGY: ESCAPE OF MEMES $0.99 35 91% 1.1k $1.0k (exactly $1,040) Gamesforfarm, Piece Of Voxel
Only Down: Gravitation Up $0.99 33 96% 990 $980 (exactly $980) Gamesforfarm, Piece Of Voxel
Sweet Escape $1.99 11 36% 330 $657 (exactly $657) King Kong
Human Strange Dream $16.00 1 0% 30 $480 (exactly $480) ALK
Nice Pro? $0.99 15 100% 450 $446 (exactly $446) NicePro

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.