Do I ship it?

GamesCollectathonCollectathon + Choose Your Own Adventure

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Collectathon Choose Your Own Adventure game?

Collectathon + Choose Your Own Adventure

Of 51 developers who shipped a Collectathon Choose Your Own Adventure game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 72 more are announced, ×2.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $600, ×1.3 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $270; 1 in 20 cleared $110k, ×243 the market median. Revenue is down 30% on the market; 72 games are announced against 26 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.3 times the market baseline, revenue down 30% on the market, 72 announced, ×2.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Collectathon + Choose Your Own Adventure
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 51
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $239 → $2.8k → $148 → $2.9k → $1.2k → $299 → $535 (still earning) → $449 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Collectathon + Choose Your Own Adventure: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 51
Bottom 30% $269 (exactly $269)
Median $598 (exactly $598)
Top 25% $3.0k (exactly $2,992)
Top 5% $115k (exactly $115,477)
Developers, 2 yr 51
Released games 180
Announced 72
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 30% on the market, supply 10% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Collectathon
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Choose Your Own Adventure
effort 2 / 10 · high · branching text with light state

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Collectathon, Choose Your Own Adventure; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Choices Matter, Exploration
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Atmospheric, Cute
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 93% positive over 2,975 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $270, median $600, 1 in 4 over $2.9k, 1 in 20 over $110k.

3 in 10 developers made under $270. Nearly all of the 43 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 72 games are announced against 26 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Collectathon with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Job SimulatorStrong odds33 devs · median $33k · 42 announced
  2. + CapitalismStrong odds76 devs · median $6.2k · 75 announced
  3. + Turn-BasedFair7 devs · median $14k · 8 announced
  4. + EconomyFair125 devs · median $3.8k · 151 announced
  5. + ManagementFair182 devs · median $3.5k · 230 announced
  6. + CrimeFair10 devs · median $3.4k · 14 announced
  7. + Level EditorFair15 devs · median $3.4k · 17 announced
  8. + Artificial IntelligenceFair46 devs · median $2.7k · 30 announced
  9. + SokobanFair12 devs · median $2.4k · 9 announced
  10. + MythologyFair18 devs · median $2.4k · 20 announced
  11. + UnderwaterFair37 devs · median $2.3k · 37 announced
  12. + Combat RacingFair10 devs · median $2.2k · 12 announced

All 178 pairs on the Collectathon page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
DevilConnection $16.66 1,951 98% 59k $975k (exactly $975,110) ChaoGames
Maid Cafe on Electric Street $18.99 595 82% 18k $339k (exactly $338,972) Adventurer's Tavern
Garage: Bad Dream Adventure older $19.90 364 97% 11k $217k (exactly $217,308) 作場金属製作所 Sakuba Metal Works, SmokymonkeyS
Old School older $14.99 442 83% 13k $199k (exactly $198,767) MDickie
Sumire older $5.99 887 95% 27k $159k (exactly $159,394) GameTomo Team
World's End Club older $19.99 228 68% 6.8k $137k (exactly $136,732) IzanagiGames, Too Kyo Games, Grounding… (IzanagiGames, Too Kyo Games, Grounding Inc., ESQUADRA,inc.)
夏目友人帳 ~葉月の記~ $49.99 77 80% 2.3k $115k (exactly $115,477) Toydium
MAKOTO WAKAIDO’s Case Files TRILOGY DELUXE older $12.99 259 77% 7.8k $101k (exactly $100,932) Hakababunko
Broken Lens older $6.99 248 88% 7.4k $52k (exactly $52,006) Team RUN
Ghostwriter Workshop $10.99 137 94% 4.1k $45k (exactly $45,169) 秘密結社マテンロウ計画, Studio Dragonet
Bigfoot Life $12.99 62 75% 1.9k $24k (exactly $24,161) Planet 47 Games
猫猫旅行社欢迎你! Momo's Revitalization Project! $24.99 24 91% 720 $18k (exactly $17,993) CyberStep, Inc.
1000 Deaths (Thousand Deaths) $14.99 33 87% 990 $15k (exactly $14,840) Pariah Interactive, Inc.
Wild Alone $10.99 38 47% 1.1k $13k (exactly $12,529) Wild Alone 21
Reap and Sow $12.99 30 80% 900 $12k (exactly $11,691) MrFishess, Jd
Wavekin $9.99 28 100% 840 $8.4k (exactly $8,392) La Folie Studio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.