Do I ship it?

GamesChoices MatterChoices Matter + Word Game

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Choices Matter Word Game?

Choices Matter + Word Game

Of 90 developers who shipped a Choices Matter Word Game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 136 more are announced, ×2.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.3k, ×4.7 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $780; 1 in 20 cleared $1.5M, ×3278 the market median. Revenue is down 70% on the market; 136 games are announced against 63 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 4.7 times the market baseline, revenue down 70% on the market, 136 announced, ×2.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Choices Matter + Word Game
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 90
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.3k → $300 → $17k → $1.3k → $5.9k → $7.0k → $2.8k (still earning) → $239 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Choices Matter + Word Game: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 90
Bottom 30% $772 (exactly $772)
Median $2.3k (exactly $2,250)
Top 25% $36k (exactly $35,608)
Top 5% $1.6M (exactly $1,556,978)
Developers, 2 yr 90
Released games 237
Announced 136
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 70% on the market, supply 115% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Choices Matter
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Word Game
effort 1 / 10 · high · dictionary logic and simple UI

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Choices Matter, Word Game; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Visual Novel, Multiple Endings, Adventure
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Story Rich, Atmospheric
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 92% positive over 34,052 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $780, median $2.3k, 1 in 4 over $35k, 1 in 20 over $1.5M.

3 in 10 developers made under $780. 6 in 10 of the 36 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 136 games are announced against 63 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Choices Matter with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds108 devs · median $58k · 91 announced
  2. + Escape RoomFair18 devs · median $4.7k · 15 announced
  3. + SportsFair120 devs · median $2.4k · 150 announced
  4. + RhythmFair36 devs · median $2.4k · 35 announced
  5. + Hidden ObjectFair261 devs · median $802 · 273 announced
  6. + TriviaFair26 devs · median $599 · 30 announced
  7. + Board GameFair119 devs · median $479 · 150 announced
  8. + RacingFair51 devs · median $449 · 54 announced
  9. + ChessFair19 devs · median $419 · 20 announced
  10. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds9 devs · median $215k · 23 announced
  11. + RomePoor odds10 devs · median $160k · 19 announced
  12. + World War IPoor odds10 devs · median $57k · 19 announced

All 243 pairs on the Choices Matter page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Homicipher $13.99 7,821 96% 235k $3.3M (exactly $3,282,474) 八名木Games
Far Away older $12.99 7,598 94% 228k $3.0M (exactly $2,960,941) Gratesca
Mandate Of Heaven $14.99 5,446 91% 163k $2.4M (exactly $2,449,066) 木焱工作室
The Séance of Blake Manor $19.99 3,683 95% 110k $2.2M (exactly $2,208,695) Spooky Doorway
WILL: A Wonderful World / WILL:美好世界 older $14.99 4,588 92% 138k $2.1M (exactly $2,063,224) WMY Studio
Cyber Manhunt 2: New World - The Hacking Simulator $12.99 5,191 92% 156k $2.0M (exactly $2,022,933) Aluba Van+
Matchmaking Inc. $8.99 5,773 87% 173k $1.6M (exactly $1,556,978) Wave Games
风信楼 older $11.99 3,423 94% 103k $1.2M (exactly $1,231,253) Pingfang Games
S4U: CITYPUNK 2011 AND LOVE PUNCH $13.99 2,324 90% 70k $975k (exactly $975,383) U0U Games
Vanity Fair: The Pursuit older $6.99 4,014 87% 120k $842k (exactly $841,736) 木焱工作室
The Inn-Sanity $7.99 1,561 96% 47k $374k (exactly $374,172) Steppe Hare Studio
Stiff Neck $6.99 955 81% 29k $200k (exactly $200,264) 伤官制作组 Team Uranian
纸上的魔法使 $29.99 213 89% 6.4k $192k (exactly $191,636) UGUISUKAGURA
轮回修仙传 $4.99 1,085 81% 33k $162k (exactly $162,424) Collider Studio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.