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Should I ship a Choices Matter Walking Simulator?
Choices Matter + Walking Simulator
Of 270 developers who shipped a Choices Matter Walking Simulator in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 377 more are announced, ×2.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $1.4k, ×3.0 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $540; 1 in 20 cleared $160k, ×347 the market median. Revenue is up 30% on the market; 377 games are announced against 150 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $538 (exactly $538) |
|---|---|
| Median | $1.4k (exactly $1,438) |
| Top 25% | $6.2k (exactly $6,235) |
| Top 5% | $165k (exactly $164,918) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 270 |
| Released games | 615 |
| Announced | 377 |
| Effort | 4 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $4.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 30% on the market, supply 15% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Choices Matter
- effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
- Walking Simulator
- effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
- Systems
- Choices Matter, Walking Simulator; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Exploration, Multiple Endings
- Price point
- $4.99 typical · top 25% priced $10.99 or above
- Art
- 6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Atmospheric, First-Person, 3D
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $10.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.
The top 10 games average 91% positive over 18,482 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $540. 8 in 10 of the 155 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 377 games are announced against 150 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.5 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Choices Matter with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + FMVStrong odds
- + Escape RoomFair
- + SportsFair
- + RhythmFair
- + Hidden ObjectFair
- + TriviaFair
- + Board GameFair
- + RacingFair
- + ChessFair
- + Real-Time with PausePoor odds
- + RomePoor odds
- + World War IPoor odds
Comparable games
The Stanley Parable: Ultra Deluxe 2022 · $26M 
The Stanley Parable 2013 · $18M 
Life is Strange: Before the Storm 2017 · $17M 
The Invincible 2023 · $9.0M 
The Forgotten City 2021 · $8.4M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | The Stanley Parable: Ultra Deluxe | older | $24.99 | 34,268 94% | 1.0M | $26M (exactly $25,690,720) | Crows Crows Crows |
| | The Stanley Parable | older | $14.99 | 40,292 92% | 1.2M | $18M (exactly $18,119,312) | Galactic Cafe |
| | Life is Strange: Before the Storm | older | $16.99 | 33,504 93% | 1.0M | $17M (exactly $17,076,989) | Deck Nine, Feral Interactive (Mac), Fer… (Deck Nine, Feral Interactive (Mac), Feral Interactive (Linux)) |
| | The Invincible | older | $29.99 | 10,055 87% | 302k | $9.0M (exactly $9,046,484) | Starward Industries |
| | The Forgotten City | older | $24.99 | 11,159 96% | 335k | $8.4M (exactly $8,365,902) | Modern Storyteller |
 | Cloudpunk | older | $19.99 | 13,788 87% | 414k | $8.3M (exactly $8,268,664) | ION LANDS |
 | Call of Cthulhu® | older | $19.99 | 10,962 79% | 329k | $6.6M (exactly $6,573,911) | Cyanide Studio |
 | Before Your Eyes | older | $9.99 | 21,236 97% | 637k | $6.4M (exactly $6,364,429) | GoodbyeWorld Games, Nice Dream |
 | Nobody Wants to Die | older | $24.99 | 5,818 83% | 175k | $4.4M (exactly $4,361,755) | Critical Hit Games |
 | Killer Frequency | older | $24.99 | 5,131 93% | 154k | $3.8M (exactly $3,846,711) | Team17 |
 | OPUS: Prism Peak | $24.99 | 1,071 92% | 32k | $803k (exactly $802,929) | SIGONO INC. | |
 | Fever Meme | $4.20 | 4,358 91% | 131k | $549k (exactly $549,108) | Aimbok | |
 | Tides of Tomorrow 🌊 | $29.99 | 521 86% | 16k | $469k (exactly $468,744) | Digixart | |
 | CARIMARA: Beneath the forlorn limbs | $4.99 | 2,752 96% | 83k | $412k (exactly $411,974) | Bastinus Rex | |
 | The Inn-Sanity | $7.99 | 1,561 96% | 47k | $374k (exactly $374,172) | Steppe Hare Studio | |
 | While We Wait Here | $4.99 | 2,344 89% | 70k | $351k (exactly $350,897) | Bad Vices Games | |
 | Necrophosis | $15.99 | 722 89% | 22k | $346k (exactly $346,343) | Dragonis Ares, Adonis Brosteanu | |
 | Maid Cafe on Electric Street | $18.99 | 595 82% | 18k | $339k (exactly $338,972) | Adventurer's Tavern | |
 | THRESHOLD | $9.99 | 1,103 84% | 33k | $331k (exactly $330,569) | Julien Eveillé | |
 | The Cabin Factory | $2.99 | 3,455 90% | 104k | $310k (exactly $309,914) | International Cat Studios |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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