Do I ship it?

Games › Choices Matter › Choices Matter + Traditional Roguelike

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Choices Matter Traditional Roguelike?

Choices Matter + Traditional Roguelike

Of 34 developers who shipped a Choices Matter Traditional Roguelike in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 57 more are announced.

Verdict: dead, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $360 in the last 2 years and $360 over 4, against a market of $480 for a 4 / 10 build. 30 developers shipped in the last year and 57 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.8 times the market baseline, revenue down 85% on the market, 57 announced, ×1.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Choices Matter + Traditional Roguelike
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 34
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.3k → $12k → $987 (still earning) → $180 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Choices Matter + Traditional Roguelike: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 34
Bottom 30% $150 (exactly $150)
Median $359 (exactly $359)
Top 25% $2.2k (exactly $2,248)
Top 5% $46k (exactly $46,051)
Developers, 2 yr 34
Released games 45
Announced 57
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 85% on the market, supply 650% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 2%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Choices Matter
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Traditional Roguelike
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Choices Matter, Traditional Roguelike; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Roguelike, Procedural Generation, Roguelite
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Relaxing, Colorful
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 94% positive over 12,263 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $150, median $360, 1 in 4 over $2.2k, 1 in 20 over $46k.

3 in 10 developers made under $150. 57 games are announced against 30 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Choices Matter with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds108 devs · median $58k · 91 announced
  2. + Escape RoomFair18 devs · median $4.7k · 15 announced
  3. + SportsFair120 devs · median $2.4k · 150 announced
  4. + RhythmFair36 devs · median $2.4k · 35 announced
  5. + Hidden ObjectFair261 devs · median $802 · 273 announced
  6. + TriviaFair26 devs · median $599 · 30 announced
  7. + Board GameFair119 devs · median $479 · 150 announced
  8. + RacingFair51 devs · median $449 · 54 announced
  9. + ChessFair19 devs · median $419 · 20 announced
  10. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds9 devs · median $215k · 23 announced
  11. + RomePoor odds10 devs · median $160k · 19 announced
  12. + World War IPoor odds10 devs · median $57k · 19 announced

All 243 pairs on the Choices Matter page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Caves of Qud 2024 · $11M Tavern of Gods 2021 · $232k Endgame of Devil 2023 · $202k Rogue Empire: Dungeon Crawler RPG 2019 · $160k Infinite Cards 2026 · $46k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Caves of Qud $29.99 11,892 94% 357k $11M (exactly $10,699,232) Freehold Games
Tavern of Gods older $9.99 775 77% 23k $232k (exactly $232,268) Element Studio
Endgame of Devil older $6.99 964 88% 29k $202k (exactly $202,151) MiniWhale
Rogue Empire: Dungeon Crawler RPG older $14.99 355 84% 11k $160k (exactly $159,644) Portal Entertainment
Infinite Cards $15.99 96 93% 2.9k $46k (exactly $46,051) Tubby Turtle Studios
Deadnaut: Signal Lost older $14.99 92 85% 2.8k $41k (exactly $41,372) Screwfly Studios
魔塔地牢 older $2.99 227 69% 6.8k $20k (exactly $20,362) Zeros
Bearly Brave $9.99 66 84% 2.0k $20k (exactly $19,780) Barbaric Games
Roguecraft DX $11.99 39 92% 1.2k $14k (exactly $14,028) Badger Punch Games
Dice Dice Baby $4.99 78 88% 2.3k $12k (exactly $11,677) Nugget Games Studio
TownsFolk $11.99 22 81% 660 $7.9k (exactly $7,913) Short Circuit Studios
Coinsweeper $4.99 43 86% 1.3k $6.4k (exactly $6,437) Duo Forge Games
Autogun Heroes: Supercharged $12.49 13 46% 390 $4.9k (exactly $4,871) Nitro Games
Inkling Cats : Beneath the dreams $14.99 5 80% 150 $2.2k (exactly $2,248) Linked Rooms Games
Submarine Homesick Blues · EA $7.99 9 77% 270 $2.2k (exactly $2,157) MONOKU SAS

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.