Do I ship it?

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Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Choices Matter Top-Down Shooter?

Choices Matter + Top-Down Shooter

Of 59 developers who shipped a Choices Matter Top-Down Shooter in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 117 more are announced, ×2.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $360 in the last 2 years and $360 over 4, against a market of $480 for a 4 / 10 build. 41 developers shipped in the last year and 117 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.8 times the market baseline, revenue down 75% on the market, 117 announced, ×2.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Choices Matter + Top-Down Shooter
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 59
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.1k → $594 → $298 → $4.8k → $1.6k → $538 → $299 (still earning) → $0 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Choices Matter + Top-Down Shooter: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 59
Bottom 30% $119 (exactly $119)
Median $359 (exactly $359)
Top 25% $1.8k (exactly $1,796)
Top 5% $71k (exactly $71,298)
Developers, 2 yr 59
Released games 162
Announced 117
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 75% on the market, supply 130% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Choices Matter
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Top-Down Shooter
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Choices Matter, Top-Down Shooter; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Action Roguelike, Roguelite
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Top-Down
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 85% positive over 1,623 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $120, median $360, 1 in 4 over $1.7k, 1 in 20 over $71k.

3 in 10 developers made under $120. 9 in 10 of the 24 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 117 games are announced against 41 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.9 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Choices Matter with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds108 devs · median $58k · 91 announced
  2. + Escape RoomFair18 devs · median $4.7k · 15 announced
  3. + SportsFair120 devs · median $2.4k · 150 announced
  4. + RhythmFair36 devs · median $2.4k · 35 announced
  5. + Hidden ObjectFair261 devs · median $802 · 273 announced
  6. + TriviaFair26 devs · median $599 · 30 announced
  7. + Board GameFair119 devs · median $479 · 150 announced
  8. + RacingFair51 devs · median $449 · 54 announced
  9. + ChessFair19 devs · median $419 · 20 announced
  10. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds9 devs · median $215k · 23 announced
  11. + RomePoor odds10 devs · median $160k · 19 announced
  12. + World War IPoor odds10 devs · median $57k · 19 announced

All 243 pairs on the Choices Matter page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Shotgun King: The Final Checkmate 2022 · $1.8M Army of Ruin 2023 · $582k Reality Break 2025 · $512k Goobies 2023 · $335k Titan Attacks! 2012 · $196k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Shotgun King: The Final Checkmate older $9.99 5,918 92% 178k $1.8M (exactly $1,773,625) PUNKCAKE Delicieux
Army of Ruin older $7.99 2,430 87% 73k $582k (exactly $582,471) Milkstone Studios
Reality Break $24.99 683 80% 20k $512k (exactly $512,045) Element Games, LLC
Goobies older $5.99 1,866 90% 56k $335k (exactly $335,320) Höganäs Spel
Titan Attacks! older $9.99 654 92% 20k $196k (exactly $196,004) Puppygames
#KILLALLZOMBIES older $9.99 258 78% 7.7k $77k (exactly $77,323) Fortell Games
Maid Survivors : Little Angels · EA $8.99 268 93% 8.0k $72k (exactly $72,280) MilkEmpire
Ash & Adam's Existential Treads $6.99 340 92% 10k $71k (exactly $71,298) Ash & Adam's Games
Disjunction older $15.99 133 72% 4.0k $64k (exactly $63,800) Ape Tribe Games
Neon Sundown older $4.99 372 87% 11k $56k (exactly $55,688) Ben Nichols
Memory Lost $19.99 53 92% 1.6k $32k (exactly $31,784) Magic Hazard
Horde Hunters $6.99 99 86% 3.0k $21k (exactly $20,760) Antti Vaihia
Darkchaser: Battletide $5.99 84 73% 2.5k $15k (exactly $15,095) DB Studio
Luminaria: Dark Echoes $9.99 30 86% 900 $9.0k (exactly $8,991) Enthariel Games
Aris Arcanum $14.99 19 73% 570 $8.5k (exactly $8,544) Broken Cane
Sand: A Superfluous Game $9.99 24 83% 720 $7.2k (exactly $7,193) Voided Pixels Studio
Dust & Courage: Jake Bolton’s Journey $7.99 23 86% 690 $5.5k (exactly $5,513) Storyforge Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.