Do I ship it?

GamesChoices MatterChoices Matter + Sokoban

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Choices Matter Sokoban?

Choices Matter + Sokoban

Only 11 developers shipped a Choices Matter Sokoban in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Super Miners, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 7 more are announced.

Verdict: dead, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $180 in the last 2 years and $240 over 4, against a market of $480 for a 4 / 10 build. 8 developers shipped in the last year and 7 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.4 times the market baseline, revenue down 90% on the market, 7 announced, ×0.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Choices Matter + Sokoban
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 11
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $419 → $750 → $2.5k → $240 (still earning) → $0 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Choices Matter + Sokoban: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 11
Bottom 30% $0 (exactly $0)
Median $180 (exactly $180)
Top 25% $861 (exactly $861)
Top 5% $3.9k (exactly $3,896)
Developers, 2 yr 11
Released games 45
Announced 7
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 90% on the market, supply 165% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Choices Matter
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Sokoban
effort 2 / 10 · high · grid pushing rules and level files

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Choices Matter, Sokoban
Price point
$4.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 7 games average 96% positive over 69 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $50, median $180, 1 in 4 over $860, 1 in 20 over $3.8k.

3 in 10 developers made under $50. 7 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Choices Matter with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds108 devs · median $58k · 91 announced
  2. + Escape RoomFair18 devs · median $4.7k · 15 announced
  3. + SportsFair120 devs · median $2.4k · 150 announced
  4. + RhythmFair36 devs · median $2.4k · 35 announced
  5. + Hidden ObjectFair261 devs · median $802 · 273 announced
  6. + TriviaFair26 devs · median $599 · 30 announced
  7. + Board GameFair119 devs · median $479 · 150 announced
  8. + RacingFair51 devs · median $449 · 54 announced
  9. + ChessFair19 devs · median $419 · 20 announced
  10. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds9 devs · median $215k · 23 announced
  11. + RomePoor odds10 devs · median $160k · 19 announced
  12. + World War IPoor odds10 devs · median $57k · 19 announced

All 243 pairs on the Choices Matter page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Catherine Classic older $19.99 8,858 88% 266k $5.3M (exactly $5,312,143) ATLUS
Soulless: Ray Of Hope older $4.99 208 71% 6.2k $31k (exactly $31,138) ·
Time Bandit – Part 1: Appendages of the Machine older $9.99 64 93% 1.9k $19k (exactly $19,181) Joel Jordon
Schein older $4.99 109 69% 3.3k $16k (exactly $16,317) Zeppelin Studio
Night Lights older $4.99 62 79% 1.9k $9.3k (exactly $9,281) ·
Crate Mates older $4.99 56 100% 1.7k $8.4k (exactly $8,383) Emerick Gibson
On the Peril of Parrots older $9.99 20 85% 600 $6.0k (exactly $5,994) Spritewrench
Super Miners · EA $9.99 13 92% 390 $3.9k (exactly $3,896) METAGAR
Space Porter older $9.99 11 81% 330 $3.3k (exactly $3,297) Stas Paty9mkin
SNIKS older $2.99 32 100% 960 $2.9k (exactly $2,870) Shelly Alon
Götz $4.99 17 88% 510 $2.5k (exactly $2,545) Sleepy Seed
7 Days Before the End $0.99 29 100% 870 $861 (exactly $861) TrucyAkina
Pushle DELUXE $7.99 1 100% 30 $240 (exactly $240) GreyTGames
Slide to Solve $0.99 7 100% 210 $208 (exactly $208) Peter Hijma
Buccaneer's Booty $5.99 1 100% 30 $180 (exactly $180) ITPex
Fake Snake $4.32 1 100% 30 $130 (exactly $130) Narvio Games
Every Step Has a Sound $2.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Darky
YASC $6.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Manabreak
记忆收藏家 · The Memory Mender $6.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Xiang

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.