Do I ship it?

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Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Choices Matter Runner?

Choices Matter + Runner

Of 30 developers who shipped a Choices Matter Runner in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 28 more are announced.

Verdict: dead, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $150 in the last 2 years and $150 over 4, against a market of $480 for a 4 / 10 build. 16 developers shipped in the last year and 28 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.3 times the market baseline, revenue down 45% on the market, 28 announced, ×1.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Choices Matter + Runner
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 30
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $150 → $719 → $896 → $1.6k → $120 → $90 (still earning) → $60 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Choices Matter + Runner: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 30
Bottom 30% $60 (exactly $60)
Median $150 (exactly $150)
Top 25% $1.6k (exactly $1,647)
Top 5% $5.6k (exactly $5,605)
Developers, 2 yr 30
Released games 78
Announced 28
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $2.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 45% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Choices Matter
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Runner
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Choices Matter, Runner; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Action-Adventure, Adventure
Price point
$2.99 typical · top 25% priced $10.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, 3D, Funny
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $10.99 or above; the middle game at $2.99.

The top 10 games average 92% positive over 384 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $60, median $150, 1 in 4 over $1.6k, 1 in 20 over $5.6k.

3 in 10 developers made under $60. 9 in 10 of the 19 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 28 games are announced against 16 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Choices Matter with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds108 devs · median $58k · 91 announced
  2. + Escape RoomFair18 devs · median $4.7k · 15 announced
  3. + SportsFair120 devs · median $2.4k · 150 announced
  4. + RhythmFair36 devs · median $2.4k · 35 announced
  5. + Hidden ObjectFair261 devs · median $802 · 273 announced
  6. + TriviaFair26 devs · median $599 · 30 announced
  7. + Board GameFair119 devs · median $479 · 150 announced
  8. + RacingFair51 devs · median $449 · 54 announced
  9. + ChessFair19 devs · median $419 · 20 announced
  10. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds9 devs · median $215k · 23 announced
  11. + RomePoor odds10 devs · median $160k · 19 announced
  12. + World War IPoor odds10 devs · median $57k · 19 announced

All 243 pairs on the Choices Matter page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Last Room 2021 · $857k BIT.TRIP Presents... Runner2: Future Legend of Rhythm Alien 2013 · $733k Rocket Boots Mania 2025 · $103k Single By Choice 2024 · $55k Star Sky 2015 · $35k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Last Room older $29.99 953 73% 29k $857k (exactly $857,414) Quantum Forge Studios
BIT.TRIP Presents... Runner2: Future Legend of Rhythm Alien older $14.99 1,630 93% 49k $733k (exactly $733,011) Gaijin Games
Rocket Boots Mania $14.99 229 99% 6.9k $103k (exactly $102,981) Luma Play
Single By Choice older $7.99 231 90% 6.9k $55k (exactly $55,371) AIROTS, 非魚創意
Star Sky older $3.99 295 78% 8.9k $35k (exactly $35,312) JMJ Interactive, Mårten Jonsson
DOLPHIN HUSTLE older $24.99 16 75% 480 $12k (exactly $11,995) Gamesforgames
Star Sky 3 older $3.99 59 88% 1.8k $7.1k (exactly $7,062) Mårten Jonsson, JMJ Interactive
Guilty Me older $5.99 38 71% 1.1k $6.8k (exactly $6,829) HKGamesStudio
Nippon Marathon 2: Daijoubu · EA $10.99 17 94% 510 $5.6k (exactly $5,605) Onion Soup Interactive
RUN HARE RUN older $4.99 35 68% 1.1k $5.2k (exactly $5,240) High and Wide
Super Miners · EA $9.99 13 92% 390 $3.9k (exactly $3,896) METAGAR
Slim Girl $9.99 10 40% 300 $3.0k (exactly $2,997) Fat Tiger
Dino-Ducks Dash $2.99 30 96% 900 $2.7k (exactly $2,691) Duckosaurus Games
Corridor Exit 8 $1.99 37 64% 1.1k $2.2k (exactly $2,209) Mynoki Games
Sales, Science & Spirits $5.99 12 100% 360 $2.2k (exactly $2,156) Ufo Pizza Productions, Zero Point Games
Carpe Dino: Seize the Date $4.99 11 100% 330 $1.6k (exactly $1,647) Black Squirrels Studio Inc.
Escape The Quack $3.99 10 100% 300 $1.2k (exactly $1,197) MT Gruppen AS
Lawnmower Game Racing 2: Drunken $1.99 15 73% 450 $896 (exactly $896) Tero Lunkka, Valkeala Software

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.