Do I ship it?

Games › Choices Matter › Choices Matter + Roguelike

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Choices Matter Roguelike?

Choices Matter + Roguelike

Of 509 developers who shipped a Choices Matter Roguelike in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 951 more are announced, ×3.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.3k, ×2.6 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $320k, ×688 the market median. Revenue is down 70% on the market; 951 games are announced against 322 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.6 times the market baseline, revenue down 70% on the market, 951 announced, ×3.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Choices Matter + Roguelike
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 509
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $9.3k → $2.2k → $6.4k → $3.3k → $4.9k → $1.4k → $1.0k (still earning) → $450 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Choices Matter + Roguelike: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 509
Bottom 30% $299 (exactly $299)
Median $1.3k (exactly $1,258)
Top 25% $15k (exactly $14,564)
Top 5% $327k (exactly $326,946)
Developers, 2 yr 509
Released games 949
Announced 951
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 70% on the market, supply 70% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Choices Matter
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Roguelike
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Choices Matter, Roguelike; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Roguelite, Strategy, RPG
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $17.49 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Pixel Graphics
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $17.49 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 89% positive over 60,730 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $1.3k, 1 in 4 over $14k, 1 in 20 over $320k.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 7 in 10 of the 214 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 951 games are announced against 322 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Choices Matter with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds108 devs · median $58k · 91 announced
  2. + Escape RoomFair18 devs · median $4.7k · 15 announced
  3. + SportsFair120 devs · median $2.4k · 150 announced
  4. + RhythmFair36 devs · median $2.4k · 35 announced
  5. + Hidden ObjectFair261 devs · median $802 · 273 announced
  6. + TriviaFair26 devs · median $599 · 30 announced
  7. + Board GameFair119 devs · median $479 · 150 announced
  8. + RacingFair51 devs · median $449 · 54 announced
  9. + ChessFair19 devs · median $419 · 20 announced
  10. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds9 devs · median $215k · 23 announced
  11. + RomePoor odds10 devs · median $160k · 19 announced
  12. + World War IPoor odds10 devs · median $57k · 19 announced

All 243 pairs on the Choices Matter page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Balatro 2024 · $72M Loop Hero 2021 · $15M Monster Train 2020 · $15M Caves of Qud 2024 · $11M Griftlands 2021 · $8.1M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Balatro older $14.99 160,715 97% 4.8M $72M (exactly $72,273,536) LocalThunk
Loop Hero older $14.99 33,816 92% 1.0M $15M (exactly $15,207,055) Four Quarters
Monster Train older $24.99 19,950 95% 599k $15M (exactly $14,956,515) Shiny Shoe
Caves of Qud $29.99 11,892 94% 357k $11M (exactly $10,699,232) Freehold Games
Griftlands older $19.99 13,440 93% 403k $8.1M (exactly $8,059,968) Klei Entertainment
Crab Champions · EA older $9.99 26,546 97% 796k $8.0M (exactly $7,955,836) Noisestorm
Monster Train 2 $24.99 8,647 95% 259k $6.5M (exactly $6,482,656) Shiny Shoe
Cultist Simulator older $19.99 10,496 82% 315k $6.3M (exactly $6,294,451) Weather Factory
UnderMine older $19.99 9,284 90% 279k $5.6M (exactly $5,567,615) Thorium
Quasimorph $24.99 7,196 82% 216k $5.4M (exactly $5,394,841) Magnum Scriptum
Star Trek: Voyager - Across the Unknown $34.99 4,162 79% 125k $4.4M (exactly $4,368,851) Gamexcite
Rogue: Genesia $14.99 8,111 90% 243k $3.6M (exactly $3,647,517) Ouadi Huard
Tower Dominion $17.49 5,117 85% 154k $2.7M (exactly $2,684,890) Parallel 45 Games
Void War $19.99 3,653 94% 110k $2.2M (exactly $2,190,704) Tundra
Sol Cesto $13.99 4,838 91% 145k $2.0M (exactly $2,030,509) Tambouille, Géraud Zucchini, Chariospir… (Tambouille, Géraud Zucchini, Chariospirale)
Nordhold $19.99 2,875 87% 86k $1.7M (exactly $1,724,137) StunForge
RACCOIN: Coin Pusher Roguelike $11.99 4,239 82% 127k $1.5M (exactly $1,524,768) Doraccoon

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.