Games › Choices Matter › Choices Matter + Outbreak Sim
Should I ship a Choices Matter Outbreak Sim?
Choices Matter + Outbreak Sim
Of 23 developers who shipped a Choices Matter Outbreak Sim in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 47 more are announced, ×2.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $1.4k, ×3.0 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $150; 1 in 20 cleared $790k, ×1682 the market median. Revenue is down 60% on the market; 47 games are announced against 16 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $150 (exactly $150) |
|---|---|
| Median | $1.4k (exactly $1,438) |
| Top 25% | $12k (exactly $12,275) |
| Top 5% | $799k (exactly $798,756) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 23 |
| Released games | 50 |
| Announced | 47 |
| Effort | 4 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $6.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 60% on the market, supply 130% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 4%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Choices Matter
- effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
- Outbreak Sim
- effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
- Systems
- Choices Matter, Outbreak Sim; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Multiple Endings, Visual Novel
- Price point
- $6.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
- Art
- 3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Story Rich, Anime
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.
The top 10 games average 92% positive over 29,679 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $150. 6 in 10 of the 8 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 47 games are announced against 16 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.9 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Choices Matter with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + FMVStrong odds
- + Escape RoomFair
- + SportsFair
- + RhythmFair
- + Hidden ObjectFair
- + TriviaFair
- + Board GameFair
- + RacingFair
- + ChessFair
- + Real-Time with PausePoor odds
- + RomePoor odds
- + World War IPoor odds
Comparable games
No, I'm not a Human 2025 · $12M 
60 Seconds! 2015 · $2.8M 
After Inc: Revival 2026 · $799k 
Rebuild 3: Gangs of Deadsville 2015 · $668k 
Galacticare 2024 · $540k | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | No, I'm not a Human | $14.99 | 27,222 93% | 817k | $12M (exactly $12,241,733) | Trioskaz | |
| | 60 Seconds! | older | $8.99 | 10,491 84% | 315k | $2.8M (exactly $2,829,423) | Robot Gentleman |
| | After Inc: Revival | $17.99 | 1,480 77% | 44k | $799k (exactly $798,756) | Ndemic Creations | |
| | Rebuild 3: Gangs of Deadsville | older | $14.99 | 1,486 86% | 45k | $668k (exactly $668,254) | Northway Games, Sarah Northway |
| | Galacticare | older | $29.99 | 600 85% | 18k | $540k (exactly $539,820) | Brightrock Games |
 | Broken Lines | older | $24.99 | 604 76% | 18k | $453k (exactly $452,819) | BirdIsland/PortaPlay |
 | The Fabulous Fear Machine | older | $17.99 | 542 89% | 16k | $293k (exactly $292,517) | Fictiorama Studios |
 | Project Planet - Earth vs Humanity | older | $24.99 | 361 78% | 11k | $271k (exactly $270,642) | Fifth Harbour Studios |
 | Rogue AI Simulator | older | $11.99 | 364 82% | 11k | $131k (exactly $130,931) | Nerdook Productions |
 | Welcome Back, Commander | $14.99 | 230 80% | 6.9k | $103k (exactly $103,431) | S.C. 16 BIT NIGHTS S.R.L. | |
 | Survivor's Notes | $6.99 | 352 91% | 11k | $74k (exactly $73,814) | MYSTERY CROWN, YESPLAY | |
 | Lust Epidemic 18+ | $9.99 | 176 66% | 5.3k | $53k (exactly $52,747) | BanzaiProject | |
 | FLESHBREAK | $4.99 | 82 37% | 2.5k | $12k (exactly $12,275) | Horubrain Interactive | |
 | Alarm112: Fire Unit | $14.99 | 23 73% | 690 | $10k (exactly $10,343) | Control Room Labs | |
 | Symptoms of Infection | · EA | $3.50 | 58 89% | 1.7k | $6.1k (exactly $6,090) | ORB Research & Broadcasting |
 | Day Zero | · EA | $4.99 | 39 79% | 1.2k | $5.8k (exactly $5,838) | Imdie Studios |
 | The Book of Plagues | $6.99 | 17 94% | 510 | $3.6k (exactly $3,565) | DiaMMax Games |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
Your address goes to Buttondown, which sends the letter, and nowhere else. Every issue has an unsubscribe link. No tracking beyond the open count Buttondown keeps.