Do I ship it?

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Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Choices Matter Mystery Dungeon?

Choices Matter + Mystery Dungeon

Of 49 developers who shipped a Choices Matter Mystery Dungeon in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 74 more are announced, ×2.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $390 in the last 2 years and $450 over 4, against a market of $480 for a 4 / 10 build. 27 developers shipped in the last year and 74 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.8 times the market baseline, revenue down 60% on the market, 74 announced, ×2.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Choices Matter + Mystery Dungeon
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 49
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.0k → $2.4k → $719 → $1.2k → $1.2k → $359 (still earning) → $105 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Choices Matter + Mystery Dungeon: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 49
Bottom 30% $120 (exactly $120)
Median $386 (exactly $386)
Top 25% $2.4k (exactly $2,395)
Top 5% $38k (exactly $37,718)
Developers, 2 yr 49
Released games 105
Announced 74
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 60% on the market, supply 25% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Choices Matter
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Mystery Dungeon
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Choices Matter, Mystery Dungeon; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Adventure, Roguelike
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $13.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Cute, Pixel Graphics
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $13.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 77% positive over 1,359 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $120, median $390, 1 in 4 over $2.3k, 1 in 20 over $37k.

3 in 10 developers made under $120. 9 in 10 of the 23 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 74 games are announced against 27 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Choices Matter with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds108 devs · median $58k · 91 announced
  2. + Escape RoomFair18 devs · median $4.7k · 15 announced
  3. + SportsFair120 devs · median $2.4k · 150 announced
  4. + RhythmFair36 devs · median $2.4k · 35 announced
  5. + Hidden ObjectFair261 devs · median $802 · 273 announced
  6. + TriviaFair26 devs · median $599 · 30 announced
  7. + Board GameFair119 devs · median $479 · 150 announced
  8. + RacingFair51 devs · median $449 · 54 announced
  9. + ChessFair19 devs · median $419 · 20 announced
  10. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds9 devs · median $215k · 23 announced
  11. + RomePoor odds10 devs · median $160k · 19 announced
  12. + World War IPoor odds10 devs · median $57k · 19 announced

All 243 pairs on the Choices Matter page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Reventure 2019 · $3.1M Boyfriend Dungeon 2021 · $1.3M Vivid Knight 2021 · $735k Guidus Zero 2025 · $274k Full Mojo Rampage 2014 · $204k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Reventure older $12.34 8,451 95% 254k $3.1M (exactly $3,128,560) Pixelatto
Boyfriend Dungeon older $19.99 2,105 91% 63k $1.3M (exactly $1,262,368) Kitfox Games
Vivid Knight older $14.99 1,635 89% 49k $735k (exactly $735,260) Asobism.Co.,Ltd
Guidus Zero $14.99 609 75% 18k $274k (exactly $273,867) izzle
Full Mojo Rampage older $12.99 524 85% 16k $204k (exactly $204,203) Over the Top Games
Slot & Dungeons $8.99 304 83% 9.1k $82k (exactly $81,989) MUC GAMES
Hero in an All-Forgiving Fantasy World RPG $16.99 74 74% 2.2k $38k (exactly $37,718) INAZUMA GAMES
Choose Wisely older $9.99 117 72% 3.5k $35k (exactly $35,065) ID Card
Dungeon Vixens: A Tale of Temptation older $5.99 166 80% 5.0k $30k (exactly $29,830) NightlineArcade
The Cuniculus of Paradise $16.99 57 87% 1.7k $29k (exactly $29,053) Doubles Core
Aquilon's Sex Quest $6.99 112 70% 3.4k $23k (exactly $23,486) Aquilon
ACCIDENTALLY $12.99 30 60% 900 $12k (exactly $11,691) M&K WORKS
NTR LIFE $3.99 70 74% 2.1k $8.4k (exactly $8,379) Jpegsama
They See Us $3.99 60 85% 1.8k $7.2k (exactly $7,182) MalumGames
Duck N Roll $6.99 30 96% 900 $6.3k (exactly $6,291) GoldPumpkin Inc.
Defense&Making · EA $13.99 13 76% 390 $5.5k (exactly $5,456) 3DAYS

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.