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Should I ship a Choices Matter Exploration game?
Choices Matter + Exploration
Of 893 developers who shipped a Choices Matter Exploration game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 2,180 more are announced, ×4.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $1.8k, ×3.8 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $450; 1 in 20 cleared $420k, ×895 the market median. Revenue is down 25% on the market; 2,180 games are announced against 518 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $449 (exactly $449) |
|---|---|
| Median | $1.8k (exactly $1,796) |
| Top 25% | $18k (exactly $17,940) |
| Top 5% | $425k (exactly $425,187) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 893 |
| Released games | 2,245 |
| Announced | 2,180 |
| Effort | 4 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $7.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 25% on the market, supply 35% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Choices Matter
- effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
- Exploration
- effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
- Systems
- Choices Matter, Exploration; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Multiple Endings, RPG
- Price point
- $7.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
- Art
- 3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, Atmospheric, 2D
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.
The top 10 games average 82% positive over 205,836 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $450. 8 in 10 of the 464 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 2,180 games are announced against 518 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.2 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Choices Matter with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + FMVStrong odds
- + Escape RoomFair
- + SportsFair
- + RhythmFair
- + Hidden ObjectFair
- + TriviaFair
- + Board GameFair
- + RacingFair
- + ChessFair
- + Real-Time with PausePoor odds
- + RomePoor odds
- + World War IPoor odds
Comparable games
Hogwarts Legacy 2023 · $495M 
Assassin's Creed® Odyssey 2018 · $310M 
Dying Light 2 Stay Human: Reloaded Edition 2022 · $297M 
Divinity: Original Sin 2 - Definitive Edition 2017 · $244M 
S.T.A.L.K.E.R. 2: Heart of Chornobyl 2024 · $192M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Hogwarts Legacy | older | $59.99 | 274,801 89% | 8.2M | $495M (exactly $494,559,360) | Avalanche Software |
| | Assassin's Creed® Odyssey | older | $59.99 | 172,149 89% | 5.2M | $310M (exactly $309,816,555) | Ubisoft Quebec, Ubisoft Montreal, Ubiso… (Ubisoft Quebec, Ubisoft Montreal, Ubisoft Bucharest, Ubisoft Singapore, Ubisoft Montpellier, Ubisoft Kiev, Ubisoft Shanghai) |
| | Dying Light 2 Stay Human: Reloaded Edition | older | $59.99 | 164,914 79% | 4.9M | $297M (exactly $296,795,726) | Techland |
| | Divinity: Original Sin 2 - Definitive Edition | older | $44.99 | 180,782 95% | 5.4M | $244M (exactly $244,001,465) | Larian Studios |
| | S.T.A.L.K.E.R. 2: Heart of Chornobyl | $59.99 | 106,592 81% | 3.2M | $192M (exactly $191,833,622) | GSC Game World | |
 | Disco Elysium - The Final Cut | older | $39.99 | 118,124 92% | 3.5M | $142M (exactly $141,713,363) | ZA/UM |
 | Lies of P | older | $59.99 | 58,411 91% | 1.8M | $105M (exactly $105,122,277) | NEOWIZ |
 | Marvel's Guardians of the Galaxy | older | $59.99 | 35,397 93% | 1.1M | $64M (exactly $63,703,981) | Eidos-Montréal |
 | Anno 1800 | older | $59.99 | 29,854 81% | 896k | $54M (exactly $53,728,244) | Ubisoft Mainz |
 | Pathfinder: Wrath of the Righteous - Enhanced Edition | older | $49.99 | 34,157 83% | 1.0M | $51M (exactly $51,225,253) | Owlcat Games |
 | Tainted Grail: The Fall of Avalon | $44.99 | 33,560 87% | 1.0M | $45M (exactly $45,295,932) | Questline | |
 | Star Wars Outlaws | $69.99 | 12,268 71% | 368k | $26M (exactly $25,759,120) | Massive Entertainment – A Ubisoft Studio | |
 | Anno 117: Pax Romana | $59.99 | 12,150 69% | 365k | $22M (exactly $21,866,355) | Ubisoft Mainz | |
 | The Outer Worlds 2 | $69.99 | 8,450 73% | 254k | $18M (exactly $17,742,465) | Obsidian Entertainment | |
 | Drova - Forsaken Kin | $24.99 | 9,455 93% | 284k | $7.1M (exactly $7,088,414) | Just2D | |
 | Atomfall | $49.99 | 4,526 76% | 136k | $6.8M (exactly $6,787,642) | Rebellion | |
 | Esoteric Ebb | $24.99 | 8,719 95% | 262k | $6.5M (exactly $6,536,634) | Christoffer Bodegård | |
 | Until Dawn™ | $59.99 | 3,564 82% | 107k | $6.4M (exactly $6,414,131) | Ballistic Moon | |
 | UNBEATABLE | $27.99 | 6,552 92% | 197k | $5.5M (exactly $5,501,714) | D-CELL GAMES |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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