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Should I ship a Choices Matter Diplomacy game?
Diplomacy + Choices Matter
Of 39 developers who shipped a Choices Matter Diplomacy game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 104 more are announced, ×3.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $1.7k, ×2.7 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $480; 1 in 20 cleared $1.0M, ×1619 the market median. Revenue is up 70% on the market; 104 games are announced against 30 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $479 (exactly $479) |
|---|---|
| Median | $1.7k (exactly $1,679) |
| Top 25% | $13k (exactly $12,575) |
| Top 5% | $1.0M (exactly $1,016,593) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 39 |
| Released games | 131 |
| Announced | 104 |
| Effort | 6 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $9.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 70% on the market, supply 235% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Diplomacy
- effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
- Choices Matter
- effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
- Systems
- Diplomacy, Choices Matter; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Political Sim, Strategy
- Price point
- $9.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
- Art
- 4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Story Rich
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.
The top 10 games average 67% positive over 28,426 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $480. 9 in 10 of the 12 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 104 games are announced against 30 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.5 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Diplomacy with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + Visual NovelFair
- + Interactive FictionFair
- + Space SimLong shot
- + Open WorldPoor odds
- + Base BuildingPoor odds
- + PvPPoor odds
- + SandboxPoor odds
- + City BuilderPoor odds
- + SurvivalPoor odds
- + 4XPoor odds
- + HistoricalPoor odds
- + Alternate HistoryPoor odds
Comparable games
| Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Europa Universalis V | $59.99 | 25,353 66% | 761k | $46M (exactly $45,627,794) | Paradox Tinto | |
| | Tropico 6 | older | $39.99 | 19,837 88% | 595k | $24M (exactly $23,798,449) | Limbic Entertainment, Realmforge Studios |
| | HighFleet | older | $29.99 | 7,024 88% | 211k | $6.3M (exactly $6,319,493) | Konstantin Koshutin |
| | Democracy 4 | older | $29.99 | 5,891 81% | 177k | $5.3M (exactly $5,300,133) | Positech Games |
| | Star Trek: Infinite | older | $29.99 | 3,030 41% | 91k | $2.7M (exactly $2,726,091) | Nimble Giant Entertainment |
| | Solium Infernum | older | $39.99 | 1,571 88% | 47k | $1.9M (exactly $1,884,729) | League of Geeks |
| | Dummynation | older | $11.99 | 3,127 88% | 94k | $1.1M (exactly $1,124,782) | Alejandro Hernández Ferrero |
| | A Game of Thrones: The Board Game - Digital Edition | older | $19.99 | 1,705 71% | 51k | $1.0M (exactly $1,022,488) | Dire Wolf |
| | The Life and Suffering of Prince Jerian | $24.99 | 1,356 74% | 41k | $1.0M (exactly $1,016,593) | Schisma Games | |
| | Twilight Struggle | older | $9.99 | 2,568 86% | 77k | $770k (exactly $769,630) | Playdek, Inc. |
| | Galaxy Princess Zorana | $24.99 | 154 88% | 4.6k | $115k (exactly $115,454) | Hanako Games | |
| | Mr. President | $19.99 | 162 75% | 4.9k | $97k (exactly $97,151) | Exia Labs | |
| | Technotopia | $4.99 | 599 86% | 18k | $90k (exactly $89,670) | Yustas | |
| | For the Fatherland: Chronicle of Park Chung-hee | $14.99 | 176 88% | 5.3k | $79k (exactly $79,147) | KMS STUDIO | |
| | 吾皇万岁 | $4.99 | 422 68% | 13k | $63k (exactly $63,173) | AI GAME STUDIO | |
| | Lunar Ascendant | $14.99 | 86 44% | 2.6k | $39k (exactly $38,674) | Darts Games | |
| | Your Crown Is Mine | $18.99 | 34 82% | 1.0k | $19k (exactly $19,370) | Lyyycaena | |
| | Dictator Simulator: Gradnar | $4.99 | 84 97% | 2.5k | $13k (exactly $12,575) | GortagonGame |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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