Do I ship it?

GamesDiplomacyDiplomacy + Choices Matter

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Choices Matter Diplomacy game?

Diplomacy + Choices Matter

Of 39 developers who shipped a Choices Matter Diplomacy game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 104 more are announced, ×3.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.7k, ×2.7 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $480; 1 in 20 cleared $1.0M, ×1619 the market median. Revenue is up 70% on the market; 104 games are announced against 30 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.7 times the market baseline, revenue up 70% on the market, 104 announced, ×3.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Diplomacy + Choices Matter
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 39
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $4.8k → $98k → $138k → $9.0k → $2.2k → $1.5k (still earning) → $1.7k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Diplomacy + Choices Matter: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 39
Bottom 30% $479 (exactly $479)
Median $1.7k (exactly $1,679)
Top 25% $13k (exactly $12,575)
Top 5% $1.0M (exactly $1,016,593)
Developers, 2 yr 39
Released games 131
Announced 104
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 70% on the market, supply 235% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Diplomacy
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Choices Matter
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Diplomacy, Choices Matter; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Political Sim, Strategy
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Story Rich
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 67% positive over 28,426 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $480, median $1.7k, 1 in 4 over $12k, 1 in 20 over $1.0M.

3 in 10 developers made under $480. 9 in 10 of the 12 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 104 games are announced against 30 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Diplomacy with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Visual NovelFair16 devs · median $5.4k · 19 announced
  2. + Interactive FictionFair12 devs · median $1.0k · 17 announced
  3. + Space SimLong shot7 devs · median $360 · 14 announced
  4. + Open WorldPoor odds13 devs · median $1.8M · 38 announced
  5. + Base BuildingPoor odds19 devs · median $520k · 47 announced
  6. + PvPPoor odds10 devs · median $124k · 44 announced
  7. + SandboxPoor odds34 devs · median $116k · 89 announced
  8. + City BuilderPoor odds26 devs · median $108k · 47 announced
  9. + SurvivalPoor odds16 devs · median $100k · 28 announced
  10. + 4XPoor odds29 devs · median $86k · 79 announced
  11. + HistoricalPoor odds50 devs · median $79k · 92 announced
  12. + Alternate HistoryPoor odds30 devs · median $79k · 48 announced

All 57 pairs on the Diplomacy page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Europa Universalis V $59.99 25,353 66% 761k $46M (exactly $45,627,794) Paradox Tinto
Tropico 6 older $39.99 19,837 88% 595k $24M (exactly $23,798,449) Limbic Entertainment, Realmforge Studios
HighFleet older $29.99 7,024 88% 211k $6.3M (exactly $6,319,493) Konstantin Koshutin
Democracy 4 older $29.99 5,891 81% 177k $5.3M (exactly $5,300,133) Positech Games
Star Trek: Infinite older $29.99 3,030 41% 91k $2.7M (exactly $2,726,091) Nimble Giant Entertainment
Solium Infernum older $39.99 1,571 88% 47k $1.9M (exactly $1,884,729) League of Geeks
Dummynation older $11.99 3,127 88% 94k $1.1M (exactly $1,124,782) Alejandro Hernández Ferrero
A Game of Thrones: The Board Game - Digital Edition older $19.99 1,705 71% 51k $1.0M (exactly $1,022,488) Dire Wolf
The Life and Suffering of Prince Jerian $24.99 1,356 74% 41k $1.0M (exactly $1,016,593) Schisma Games
Twilight Struggle older $9.99 2,568 86% 77k $770k (exactly $769,630) Playdek, Inc.
Galaxy Princess Zorana $24.99 154 88% 4.6k $115k (exactly $115,454) Hanako Games
Mr. President $19.99 162 75% 4.9k $97k (exactly $97,151) Exia Labs
Technotopia $4.99 599 86% 18k $90k (exactly $89,670) Yustas
For the Fatherland: Chronicle of Park Chung-hee $14.99 176 88% 5.3k $79k (exactly $79,147) KMS STUDIO
吾皇万岁 $4.99 422 68% 13k $63k (exactly $63,173) AI GAME STUDIO
Lunar Ascendant $14.99 86 44% 2.6k $39k (exactly $38,674) Darts Games
Your Crown Is Mine $18.99 34 82% 1.0k $19k (exactly $19,370) Lyyycaena
Dictator Simulator: Gradnar $4.99 84 97% 2.5k $13k (exactly $12,575) GortagonGame

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.