Do I ship it?

GamesTabletopTabletop + Chess

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Chess Tabletop game?

Tabletop + Chess

Of 39 developers who shipped a Chess Tabletop game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 64 more are announced, ×2.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 2 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $270, ×2.3 the market's $120 for a 2 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $50; 1 in 20 cleared $130k, ×1097 the market median. Revenue is down 90% on the market; 64 games are announced against 26 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.3 times the market baseline, revenue down 90% on the market, 64 announced, ×2.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Tabletop + Chess
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 39
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $4.8k → $1.1k → $3.6k → $210 → $2.9k → $1.3k → $418 (still earning) → $60 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Tabletop + Chess: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 39
Bottom 30% $0 (exactly $0)
Median $269 (exactly $269)
Top 25% $3.4k (exactly $3,356)
Top 5% $131k (exactly $130,571)
Developers, 2 yr 39
Released games 157
Announced 64
Effort 2 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 90% on the market, supply 100% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Tabletop
effort 2 / 10 · high · effort 2 sits in the high band
Chess
effort 1 / 10 · high · fully specified rules and known engines

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
2 / 10 · static 2D art, simple logic
Systems
Tabletop, Chess; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Board Game, Turn-Based Strategy
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Funny
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 85% positive over 1,679 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $50, median $270, 1 in 4 over $3.3k, 1 in 20 over $130k.

3 in 10 developers made under $50. 7 in 10 of the 17 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 64 games are announced against 26 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Tabletop with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + BuildingFair56 devs · median $1.9k · 58 announced
  2. + CRPGFair22 devs · median $1.9k · 26 announced
  3. + RTSFair25 devs · median $1.9k · 33 announced
  4. + MilitaryFair30 devs · median $1.4k · 20 announced
  5. + HistoricalFair57 devs · median $1.3k · 67 announced
  6. + DragonsFair21 devs · median $1.2k · 21 announced
  7. + MahjongFair26 devs · median $1.2k · 24 announced
  8. + WargameFair50 devs · median $1.1k · 57 announced
  9. + SpaceFair29 devs · median $898 · 27 announced
  10. + CapitalismFair35 devs · median $807 · 33 announced
  11. + HorrorFair50 devs · median $776 · 51 announced
  12. + Local Co-OpFair31 devs · median $748 · 33 announced

All 155 pairs on the Tabletop page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Shotgun King: The Final Checkmate older $9.99 5,918 92% 178k $1.8M (exactly $1,773,625) PUNKCAKE Delicieux
Chess Ultra older $12.99 1,832 76% 55k $714k (exactly $713,930) Ripstone
Battle Chess: Game of Kings™ older $29.99 360 52% 11k $324k (exactly $323,892) Olde Sküül, Sculptured Software
Master of Chess $19.99 290 83% 8.7k $174k (exactly $173,913) BRANE
Fritz Chess 14 older $39.99 110 69% 3.3k $132k (exactly $131,967) ChessBase
Passant: A Chess Roguelike $11.99 363 79% 11k $131k (exactly $130,571) Marc Makes Games
Pure Chess Grandmaster Edition older $15.99 233 74% 7.0k $112k (exactly $111,770) Ripstone
Cat Chess $6.99 456 87% 14k $96k (exactly $95,623) Capricia Labs
Battle Chess older $19.99 110 81% 3.3k $66k (exactly $65,967) Interplay Entertainment Corp.
Dark Chess older $12.99 155 76% 4.7k $60k (exactly $60,404) Tall Troll Games
Hyper Chess $2.99 321 92% 9.6k $29k (exactly $28,794) Grouch, SuitNtie
Below the Crown $14.99 64 96% 1.9k $29k (exactly $28,781) Misfits Attic
Quantum Chess $14.99 49 63% 1.5k $22k (exactly $22,035) Quantum Realm Games
Yes, My Queen $12.99 50 82% 1.5k $19k (exactly $19,485) Wall Spaghetti
Chess Kingdom $4.99 45 91% 1.4k $6.7k (exactly $6,736) Pinch Games
Chess, Texas $4.99 27 81% 810 $4.0k (exactly $4,042) Studio Apollo
Chesscent $7.99 14 64% 420 $3.4k (exactly $3,356) Alex did it

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.