Do I ship it?

GamesTradingTrading + Card Game

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Trading Card Game?

Trading + Card Game

Only 16 developers shipped a paid Trading Card Game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, TCG Card Shop Simulator, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 5 in 10 of the games here are free to play and sit outside these figures. 47 more are announced, ×4.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $4.7k, ×9.8 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $540; 1 in 20 cleared $28M, ×59789 the market median. Revenue is up 2295% on the market; 47 games are announced against 10 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 9.8 times the market baseline, revenue up 2295% on the market, 47 announced, ×4.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Trading + Card Game
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 16
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.2k → $599 → $30k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Trading + Card Game: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 16
Bottom 30% $540 (exactly $540)
Median $4.7k (exactly $4,672)
Top 25% $80k (exactly $80,496)
Top 5% $28M (exactly $28,399,993)
Developers, 2 yr 16
Released games 46
Announced 47
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $12.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 2295% on the market, supply 45% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 46%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Trading
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Card Game
effort 2 / 10 · high · rules engine and card data

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Trading, Card Game; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Economy, Life Sim
Price point
$12.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, First-Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $12.99.

The top 10 games average 95% positive over 49,773 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $540, median $4.7k, 1 in 4 over $80k, 1 in 20 over $28M.

3 in 10 developers made under $540. 8 in 10 of the 15 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 47 games are announced against 10 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Trading with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + MiningFair32 devs · median $12k · 33 announced
  2. + Score AttackFair13 devs · median $600 · 13 announced
  3. + MMORPGPoor odds6 devs · median $206k · 42 announced
  4. + Character CustomizationPoor odds26 devs · median $60k · 137 announced
  5. + Online Co-OpPoor odds23 devs · median $47k · 84 announced
  6. + Co-opPoor odds24 devs · median $47k · 82 announced
  7. + FlightPoor odds6 devs · median $36k · 21 announced
  8. + SportsPoor odds11 devs · median $34k · 14 announced
  9. + CollectathonPoor odds28 devs · median $30k · 65 announced
  10. + PhysicsPoor odds23 devs · median $27k · 71 announced
  11. + DrivingPoor odds23 devs · median $24k · 48 announced
  12. + LootPoor odds23 devs · median $23k · 60 announced

All 109 pairs on the Trading page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
TCG Card Shop Simulator $19.99 47,357 96% 1.4M $28M (exactly $28,399,993) OPNeon Games
Hundred Days - Winemaking Simulator older $24.99 1,033 77% 31k $774k (exactly $774,440) Broken Arms Games
Supercar Collection Simulator $12.99 1,528 85% 46k $595k (exactly $595,462) Kiki Games
Entertainment Simulator $18.99 181 73% 5.4k $103k (exactly $103,116) Grizzbera Studio
Snow Ash $14.99 179 73% 5.4k $80k (exactly $80,496) Ember Studio
TCG Multiplayer Card Shop Simulator · EA $12.99 198 54% 5.9k $77k (exactly $77,161) Alkame Games
Table Battle Simulator · EA $12.99 85 74% 2.6k $33k (exactly $33,124) Kiki Games
FeeBay Simulator $5.99 167 91% 5.0k $30k (exactly $30,010) Lake Country Games
Mark Out! The Wrestling Card Game older $14.99 49 93% 1.5k $22k (exactly $22,035) DIY Experiences LLC
DAGURI: Gambling Apocalypse older $2.99 207 93% 6.2k $19k (exactly $18,568) DakeCraft
Monstrix TCG Card Shop $9.99 34 55% 1.0k $10k (exactly $10,190) Revolt Games
Crack it Up! $5.99 26 88% 780 $4.7k (exactly $4,672) Somnambulist Games
Trading Card Shop Simulator $4.99 18 27% 540 $2.7k (exactly $2,695) NOSTRA.GAMES

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.