Do I ship it?

GamesCollectathonCollectathon + Card Game

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Collectathon Card Game?

Collectathon + Card Game

Of 52 developers who shipped a Collectathon Card Game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 65 more are announced, ×2.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $900, ×1.9 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $210; 1 in 20 cleared $260k, ×558 the market median. Revenue is down 35% on the market; 65 games are announced against 30 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.9 times the market baseline, revenue down 35% on the market, 65 announced, ×2.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Collectathon + Card Game
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 52
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $36k → $5.4k → $179 → $898 → $537 → $5.2k → $2.7k (still earning) → $239 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Collectathon + Card Game: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 52
Bottom 30% $208 (exactly $208)
Median $898 (exactly $898)
Top 25% $7.1k (exactly $7,130)
Top 5% $265k (exactly $264,873)
Developers, 2 yr 52
Released games 103
Announced 65
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 35% on the market, supply 30% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Collectathon
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Card Game
effort 2 / 10 · high · rules engine and card data

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Collectathon, Card Game; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Life Sim, Management, Simulation
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with First-Person, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 95% positive over 50,864 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $210, median $900, 1 in 4 over $7.1k, 1 in 20 over $260k.

3 in 10 developers made under $210. 9 in 10 of the 28 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 65 games are announced against 30 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Collectathon with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Job SimulatorStrong odds33 devs · median $33k · 42 announced
  2. + CapitalismStrong odds76 devs · median $6.2k · 75 announced
  3. + Turn-BasedFair7 devs · median $14k · 8 announced
  4. + EconomyFair125 devs · median $3.8k · 151 announced
  5. + ManagementFair182 devs · median $3.5k · 230 announced
  6. + CrimeFair10 devs · median $3.4k · 14 announced
  7. + Level EditorFair15 devs · median $3.4k · 17 announced
  8. + Artificial IntelligenceFair46 devs · median $2.7k · 30 announced
  9. + SokobanFair12 devs · median $2.4k · 9 announced
  10. + MythologyFair18 devs · median $2.4k · 20 announced
  11. + UnderwaterFair37 devs · median $2.3k · 37 announced
  12. + Combat RacingFair10 devs · median $2.2k · 12 announced

All 178 pairs on the Collectathon page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
TCG Card Shop Simulator $19.99 47,357 96% 1.4M $28M (exactly $28,399,993) OPNeon Games
Supercar Collection Simulator $12.99 1,528 85% 46k $595k (exactly $595,462) Kiki Games
Anime Shop Simulator ✨ $14.99 589 73% 18k $265k (exactly $264,873) One More Time
9th Dawn Remake $15.99 514 86% 15k $247k (exactly $246,566) Valorware
Sumire older $5.99 887 95% 27k $159k (exactly $159,394) GameTomo Team
Placid Plastic Deck - A Quiet Quest $12.99 208 80% 6.2k $81k (exactly $81,058) turbolento games, Fantastico Studio
TCG Multiplayer Card Shop Simulator · EA $12.99 198 54% 5.9k $77k (exactly $77,161) Alkame Games
Sunshine Shuffle older $9.99 156 76% 4.7k $47k (exactly $46,753) Strange Scaffold
SOULVARS older $16.99 70 78% 2.1k $36k (exactly $35,679) ginolabo, SUCCESS Corp.
Table Battle Simulator · EA $12.99 85 74% 2.6k $33k (exactly $33,124) Kiki Games
Gold and Graves $5.99 180 86% 5.4k $32k (exactly $32,346) Yoon
FeeBay Simulator $5.99 167 91% 5.0k $30k (exactly $30,010) Lake Country Games
Deadhaus Sonata · EA $19.99 38 68% 1.1k $23k (exactly $22,789) Apocalypse Studios

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.