Do I ship it?

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Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Choices Matter Card Game?

Choices Matter + Card Game

Of 281 developers who shipped a Choices Matter Card Game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 493 more are announced, ×2.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.3k, ×2.8 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $210; 1 in 20 cleared $230k, ×486 the market median. Revenue is down 75% on the market; 493 games are announced against 182 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.8 times the market baseline, revenue down 75% on the market, 493 announced, ×2.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Choices Matter + Card Game
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 281
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $8.0k → $13k → $11k → $3.5k → $6.4k → $2.5k → $659 (still earning) → $240 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Choices Matter + Card Game: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 281
Bottom 30% $208 (exactly $208)
Median $1.3k (exactly $1,349)
Top 25% $15k (exactly $14,834)
Top 5% $231k (exactly $230,992)
Developers, 2 yr 281
Released games 547
Announced 493
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 75% on the market, supply 80% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Choices Matter
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Card Game
effort 2 / 10 · high · rules engine and card data

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Choices Matter, Card Game; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Deckbuilding, Roguelike
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $15.49 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $15.49 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 90% positive over 55,447 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $210, median $1.3k, 1 in 4 over $14k, 1 in 20 over $230k.

3 in 10 developers made under $210. 7 in 10 of the 110 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 493 games are announced against 182 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Choices Matter with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds108 devs · median $58k · 91 announced
  2. + Escape RoomFair18 devs · median $4.7k · 15 announced
  3. + SportsFair120 devs · median $2.4k · 150 announced
  4. + RhythmFair36 devs · median $2.4k · 35 announced
  5. + Hidden ObjectFair261 devs · median $802 · 273 announced
  6. + TriviaFair26 devs · median $599 · 30 announced
  7. + Board GameFair119 devs · median $479 · 150 announced
  8. + RacingFair51 devs · median $449 · 54 announced
  9. + ChessFair19 devs · median $419 · 20 announced
  10. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds9 devs · median $215k · 23 announced
  11. + RomePoor odds10 devs · median $160k · 19 announced
  12. + World War IPoor odds10 devs · median $57k · 19 announced

All 243 pairs on the Choices Matter page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Balatro 2024 · $72M Sultan's Game 2025 · $19M Loop Hero 2021 · $15M Monster Train 2020 · $15M Thronebreaker: The Witcher Tales 2018 · $9.4M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Balatro older $14.99 160,715 97% 4.8M $72M (exactly $72,273,536) LocalThunk
Sultan's Game $24.99 25,061 93% 752k $19M (exactly $18,788,232) Double Cross
Loop Hero older $14.99 33,816 92% 1.0M $15M (exactly $15,207,055) Four Quarters
Monster Train older $24.99 19,950 95% 599k $15M (exactly $14,956,515) Shiny Shoe
Thronebreaker: The Witcher Tales older $19.99 15,665 89% 470k $9.4M (exactly $9,394,300) CD PROJEKT RED
Griftlands older $19.99 13,440 93% 403k $8.1M (exactly $8,059,968) Klei Entertainment
Monster Train 2 $24.99 8,647 95% 259k $6.5M (exactly $6,482,656) Shiny Shoe
Cultist Simulator older $19.99 10,496 82% 315k $6.3M (exactly $6,294,451) Weather Factory
Hand of Fate 2 older $29.99 5,273 84% 158k $4.7M (exactly $4,744,118) Defiant Development
Tainted Grail: Conquest older $19.99 7,589 90% 228k $4.6M (exactly $4,551,123) Questline
Matchmaking Inc. $8.99 5,773 87% 173k $1.6M (exactly $1,556,978) Wave Games
RACCOIN: Coin Pusher Roguelike $11.99 4,239 82% 127k $1.5M (exactly $1,524,768) Doraccoon
Commander Quest $11.99 2,804 74% 84k $1.0M (exactly $1,008,599) Flyway Games, Inc.
Ballionaire $12.34 2,398 85% 72k $888k (exactly $887,740) newobject
As We Descend · EA $19.99 1,336 86% 40k $801k (exactly $801,199) Box Dragon
Destiny of Immortal · EA $11.99 1,763 80% 53k $634k (exactly $634,151) LeiYun Games
CARIMARA: Beneath the forlorn limbs $4.99 2,752 96% 83k $412k (exactly $411,974) Bastinus Rex
Ways of Alchemy $17.99 674 74% 20k $364k (exactly $363,758) RocketBrush Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.