Do I ship it?

GamesTurn-Based CombatTurn-Based Combat + Card Battler

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Card Battler Turn-Based Combat game?

Turn-Based Combat + Card Battler

Of 425 developers who shipped a Card Battler Turn-Based Combat game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 808 more are announced, ×3.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.5k, ×3.2 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $410k, ×869 the market median. Revenue is down 50% on the market; 808 games are announced against 269 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.2 times the market baseline, revenue down 50% on the market, 808 announced, ×3.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Turn-Based Combat + Card Battler
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 425
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $6.1k → $12k → $4.3k → $6.0k → $3.1k → $2.7k → $1.4k (still earning) → $390 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Turn-Based Combat + Card Battler: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 425
Bottom 30% $300 (exactly $300)
Median $1.5k (exactly $1,498)
Top 25% $16k (exactly $16,182)
Top 5% $413k (exactly $412,825)
Developers, 2 yr 425
Released games 888
Announced 808
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $8.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 50% on the market, supply 70% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 18%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Turn-Based Combat
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Card Battler
effort 3 / 10 · high · card rules plus simple encounter logic

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Turn-Based Combat, Card Battler; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Card Game, Deckbuilding
Price point
$8.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
7 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $8.99.

The top 10 games average 69% positive over 246,250 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $1.5k, 1 in 4 over $16k, 1 in 20 over $410k.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 8 in 10 of the 190 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 808 games are announced against 269 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Turn-Based Combat with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + WuxiaStrong odds20 devs · median $19k · 21 announced
  2. + Hack and SlashStrong odds28 devs · median $3.7k · 27 announced
  3. + RomeFair8 devs · median $16k · 13 announced
  4. + CookingFair15 devs · median $6.0k · 22 announced
  5. + UndergroundFair18 devs · median $4.2k · 29 announced
  6. + IdlerFair52 devs · median $4.0k · 41 announced
  7. + DiceFair49 devs · median $2.2k · 59 announced
  8. + Traditional RoguelikeFair81 devs · median $1.4k · 107 announced
  9. + ArcadeFair59 devs · median $1.3k · 71 announced
  10. + Tower DefenseFair28 devs · median $839 · 34 announced
  11. + Artificial IntelligenceFair46 devs · median $719 · 52 announced
  12. + SolitaireFair26 devs · median $450 · 31 announced

All 175 pairs on the Turn-Based Combat page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Slay the Spire 2 · EA $24.99 183,764 61% 5.5M $138M (exactly $137,767,871) Mega Crit
Library Of Ruina older $29.99 40,605 94% 1.2M $37M (exactly $36,532,318) ProjectMoon
Marvel's Midnight Suns older $59.99 17,060 82% 512k $31M (exactly $30,702,882) Firaxis Games
Monster Train older $24.99 19,950 95% 599k $15M (exactly $14,956,515) Shiny Shoe
9 Kings · EA $19.99 21,352 92% 641k $13M (exactly $12,804,794) Sad Socket
觅长生 older $14.99 27,072 93% 812k $12M (exactly $12,174,278) Chalcedony Network
Chrono Ark older $24.99 12,623 90% 379k $9.5M (exactly $9,463,463) Al Fine
Griftlands older $19.99 13,440 93% 403k $8.1M (exactly $8,059,968) Klei Entertainment
Vampire Crawlers: The Turbo Wildcard from Vampire Survivors $9.99 18,587 96% 558k $5.6M (exactly $5,570,524) poncle, Nosebleed Interactive
Tainted Grail: Conquest older $19.99 7,589 90% 228k $4.6M (exactly $4,551,123) Questline
Super Fantasy Kingdom · EA $19.99 5,630 86% 169k $3.4M (exactly $3,376,311) Super Fantasy Games
StarVaders $24.99 3,760 97% 113k $2.8M (exactly $2,818,872) Pengonauts
He is Coming · EA $19.99 3,834 84% 115k $2.3M (exactly $2,299,250) Chronocle
Die in the Dungeon $14.99 3,239 92% 97k $1.5M (exactly $1,456,578) ATICO
Rebellion GODSOUL: Awakening · EA $17.99 2,458 85% 74k $1.3M (exactly $1,326,583) U-Secret Studio
Cross Blitz $22.99 1,557 74% 47k $1.1M (exactly $1,073,863) Tako Boy Studios LLC
Decktamer $15.99 2,069 86% 62k $992k (exactly $992,499) Horizon Edge

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.