Do I ship it?

GamesTradingTrading + Card Battler

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Trading Card Battler?

Trading + Card Battler

Only 12 developers shipped a paid Trading Card Battler in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Out of the Park Baseball 26, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 4 in 10 of the games here are free to play and sit outside these figures. 23 more are announced, ×3.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.9k, ×6.1 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $600; 1 in 20 cleared $1.2M, ×2586 the market median. Revenue is up 1600% on the market; 23 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 6.1 times the market baseline, revenue up 1600% on the market, 23 announced, ×3.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Trading + Card Battler
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 12

not enough cohorts to draw

Outcomes for Trading + Card Battler: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 12
Bottom 30% $599 (exactly $599)
Median $2.9k (exactly $2,876)
Top 25% $579k (exactly $578,757)
Top 5% $1.2M (exactly $1,228,254)
Developers, 2 yr 12
Released games 25
Announced 23
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $14.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 1600% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 40%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Trading
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Card Battler
effort 3 / 10 · high · card rules plus simple encounter logic

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Trading, Card Battler
Price point
$14.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 83% positive over 3,455 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $600, median $2.9k, 1 in 4 over $570k, 1 in 20 over $1.2M.

3 in 10 developers made under $600. 6 in 10 of the 8 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 23 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Trading with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + MiningFair32 devs · median $12k · 33 announced
  2. + Score AttackFair13 devs · median $600 · 13 announced
  3. + MMORPGPoor odds6 devs · median $206k · 42 announced
  4. + Character CustomizationPoor odds26 devs · median $60k · 137 announced
  5. + Co-opPoor odds24 devs · median $47k · 82 announced
  6. + Online Co-OpPoor odds23 devs · median $47k · 84 announced
  7. + FlightPoor odds6 devs · median $36k · 21 announced
  8. + SportsPoor odds11 devs · median $34k · 14 announced
  9. + CollectathonPoor odds28 devs · median $30k · 65 announced
  10. + PhysicsPoor odds23 devs · median $27k · 71 announced
  11. + DrivingPoor odds23 devs · median $24k · 48 announced
  12. + LootPoor odds23 devs · median $23k · 60 announced

All 109 pairs on the Trading page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Out of the Park Baseball 26 $49.99 819 82% 25k $1.2M (exactly $1,228,254) Out of the Park Developments
Mega Man Star Force Legacy Collection $39.99 657 96% 20k $788k (exactly $788,203) CAPCOM Co., Ltd.
Card Shop Simulator Multiplayer $11.99 1,609 82% 48k $579k (exactly $578,757) ShaneGame
Snow Ash $14.99 179 73% 5.4k $80k (exactly $80,496) Ember Studio
Apocalypse: The Last RV · EA $4.99 159 68% 4.8k $24k (exactly $23,802) 光年切片工作室
Mark Out! The Wrestling Card Game older $14.99 49 93% 1.5k $22k (exactly $22,035) DIY Experiences LLC
Forsaken Portals older $18.99 24 75% 720 $14k (exactly $13,673) Pottgames
Heck Deck older $3.99 64 92% 1.9k $7.7k (exactly $7,661) torcado
Soulreign $7.99 12 83% 360 $2.9k (exactly $2,876) Berraco
Casino Simulator · EA $5.99 14 21% 420 $2.5k (exactly $2,516) Game Studios
Orbit Economica $24.99 3 66% 90 $2.2k (exactly $2,249) Phoenix Smith
GuildMestar $9.99 2 100% 60 $599 (exactly $599) OffPath LLC
CardAttack-Gabee's Roads $17.99 1 100% 30 $540 (exactly $540) Flyingstone

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.