Do I ship it?

Games › Choices Matter › Choices Matter + Card Battler

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Choices Matter Card Battler?

Choices Matter + Card Battler

Of 167 developers who shipped a Choices Matter Card Battler in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 338 more are announced, ×3.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.7k, ×3.5 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $270; 1 in 20 cleared $160k, ×346 the market median. Revenue is down 60% on the market; 338 games are announced against 108 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.5 times the market baseline, revenue down 60% on the market, 338 announced, ×3.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Choices Matter + Card Battler
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 167
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $6.7k → $49k → $9.0k → $5.6k → $4.2k → $2.7k → $1.4k (still earning) → $150 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Choices Matter + Card Battler: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 167
Bottom 30% $269 (exactly $269)
Median $1.7k (exactly $1,678)
Top 25% $15k (exactly $15,290)
Top 5% $164k (exactly $164,318)
Developers, 2 yr 167
Released games 302
Announced 338
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 60% on the market, supply 85% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Choices Matter
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Card Battler
effort 3 / 10 · high · card rules plus simple encounter logic

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Choices Matter, Card Battler; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Deckbuilding, Card Game, Strategy
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $16.99 or above
Art
7 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $16.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 83% positive over 13,675 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $270, median $1.7k, 1 in 4 over $15k, 1 in 20 over $160k.

3 in 10 developers made under $270. 8 in 10 of the 66 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 338 games are announced against 108 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Choices Matter with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds108 devs · median $58k · 91 announced
  2. + Escape RoomFair18 devs · median $4.7k · 15 announced
  3. + SportsFair120 devs · median $2.4k · 150 announced
  4. + RhythmFair36 devs · median $2.4k · 35 announced
  5. + Hidden ObjectFair261 devs · median $802 · 273 announced
  6. + TriviaFair26 devs · median $599 · 30 announced
  7. + Board GameFair119 devs · median $479 · 150 announced
  8. + RacingFair51 devs · median $449 · 54 announced
  9. + ChessFair19 devs · median $419 · 20 announced
  10. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds9 devs · median $215k · 23 announced
  11. + RomePoor odds10 devs · median $160k · 19 announced
  12. + World War IPoor odds10 devs · median $57k · 19 announced

All 243 pairs on the Choices Matter page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Balatro 2024 · $72M Monster Train 2020 · $15M Griftlands 2021 · $8.1M Tainted Grail: Conquest 2021 · $4.6M Backpack Hero 2023 · $4.5M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Balatro older $14.99 160,715 97% 4.8M $72M (exactly $72,273,536) LocalThunk
Monster Train older $24.99 19,950 95% 599k $15M (exactly $14,956,515) Shiny Shoe
Griftlands older $19.99 13,440 93% 403k $8.1M (exactly $8,059,968) Klei Entertainment
Tainted Grail: Conquest older $19.99 7,589 90% 228k $4.6M (exactly $4,551,123) Questline
Backpack Hero older $19.99 7,423 85% 223k $4.5M (exactly $4,451,573) Jaspel
Black Book older $24.99 5,306 93% 159k $4.0M (exactly $3,977,908) Morteshka
Vault of the Void older $17.99 2,529 92% 76k $1.4M (exactly $1,364,901) Spider Nest Games
Out of the Park Baseball 26 $49.99 819 82% 25k $1.2M (exactly $1,228,254) Out of the Park Developments
Office Life $19.99 1,725 88% 52k $1.0M (exactly $1,034,482) LeiYun Games
Hadean Tactics older $19.99 1,725 89% 52k $1.0M (exactly $1,034,482) Emberfish Games
Commander Quest $11.99 2,804 74% 84k $1.0M (exactly $1,008,599) Flyway Games, Inc.
Oaken Tower · EA $9.99 3,024 89% 91k $906k (exactly $906,293) Bocary Studios
Ballionaire $12.34 2,398 85% 72k $888k (exactly $887,740) newobject
As We Descend · EA $19.99 1,336 86% 40k $801k (exactly $801,199) Box Dragon
Card Cultivation $14.99 694 70% 21k $312k (exactly $312,092) DarkIndex
Shambles: Sons of Apocalypse $19.99 340 77% 10k $204k (exactly $203,898) EXLIX
Dawncaster | The RPG Cardventure $19.99 274 81% 8.2k $164k (exactly $164,318) Wanderlost Interactive
Moonsigil Atlas $19.99 261 81% 7.8k $157k (exactly $156,522) Snake Tower Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.