Do I ship it?

GamesInteractive FictionInteractive Fiction + Capitalism

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Capitalist Interactive Fiction?

Interactive Fiction + Capitalism

Of 38 developers who shipped a Capitalist Interactive Fiction in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 74 more are announced, ×2.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.3k, ×2.8 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $480; 1 in 20 cleared $100k, ×216 the market median. Revenue is up 55% on the market; 74 games are announced against 29 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.8 times the market baseline, revenue up 55% on the market, 74 announced, ×2.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Interactive Fiction + Capitalism
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 38
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.6k → $1.5k → $3.1k → $539 → $2.1k → $1.2k (still earning) → $718 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Interactive Fiction + Capitalism: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 38
Bottom 30% $479 (exactly $479)
Median $1.3k (exactly $1,347)
Top 25% $7.0k (exactly $7,012)
Top 5% $103k (exactly $102,549)
Developers, 2 yr 38
Released games 124
Announced 74
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 55% on the market, supply 220% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 27%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Interactive Fiction
effort 1 / 10 · high · prose plus a state machine
Capitalism
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Interactive Fiction; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Multiple Endings, Adventure
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, 2D, Funny
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 69% positive over 1,179 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $480, median $1.3k, 1 in 4 over $7.0k, 1 in 20 over $100k.

3 in 10 developers made under $480. 8 in 10 of the 19 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 74 games are announced against 29 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Interactive Fiction with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVFair164 devs · median $36k · 162 announced
  2. + Match 3Fair12 devs · median $4.8k · 7 announced
  3. + VampiresFair41 devs · median $1.8k · 52 announced
  4. + SportsFair19 devs · median $1.5k · 19 announced
  5. + IncrementalFair160 devs · median $1.4k · 144 announced
  6. + PiratesFair7 devs · median $1.3k · 7 announced
  7. + DrivingFair12 devs · median $1.2k · 13 announced
  8. + DiplomacyFair12 devs · median $1.0k · 17 announced
  9. + Perma DeathFair27 devs · median $959 · 28 announced
  10. + Board GameFair9 devs · median $657 · 12 announced
  11. + SnowFair10 devs · median $478 · 12 announced
  12. + BuildingFair17 devs · median $449 · 20 announced

All 169 pairs on the Interactive Fiction page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
New Tales from the Borderlands older $39.99 1,737 29% 52k $2.1M (exactly $2,083,879) Gearbox Software
BLACKWOOD $24.99 565 46% 17k $424k (exactly $423,580) AttritoM7 Productions
Duskpunk $19.99 171 91% 5.1k $103k (exactly $102,549) Clockwork Bird, James Patton
To Hell With The Ugly older $19.99 133 87% 4.0k $80k (exactly $79,760) La Poule Noire, ARTE France
Regular Factory: Escape Room older $9.99 210 91% 6.3k $63k (exactly $62,937) mc2games
Psychroma older $9.99 193 88% 5.8k $58k (exactly $57,842) Rocket Adrift
Wanderlust: Travel Stories older $14.99 119 83% 3.6k $54k (exactly $53,514) Different Tales
CorpoNation: The Sorting Process older $12.99 117 71% 3.5k $46k (exactly $45,595) Canteen
子夜之章:历史的终局~MidNights of Desperado~ older $4.99 267 98% 8.0k $40k (exactly $39,970) 银阼
Marshmallow All the Way Home $29.99 44 95% 1.3k $40k (exactly $39,587) Marmalade
I.T. Never Ends $12.99 64 98% 1.9k $25k (exactly $24,941) Dadbod Games
UltraGirl Alters $19.99 37 64% 1.1k $22k (exactly $22,189) FutureInvention
how to kill a fly [ H2KAF ] $9.99 71 97% 2.1k $21k (exactly $21,279) Radtel Collective
Pocket Boss $4.99 134 89% 4.0k $20k (exactly $20,060) Langfilm, Mario von Rickenbach
The State of Nowhere $19.99 26 88% 780 $16k (exactly $15,592) Anomaly Works
Sunset Game Shop Shayou $9.99 41 90% 1.2k $12k (exactly $12,288) Lobstudio
Baskin All-In: The Family · EA $8.99 26 65% 780 $7.0k (exactly $7,012) TheSugarRay

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.