Do I ship it?

GamesFlightFlight + Bullet Time

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Bullet Time Flight game?

Flight + Bullet Time

Only 10 developers shipped a Bullet Time Flight game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Cosmo Riders, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 20 more are announced, ×3.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $60 in the last 2 years and $60 over 4, against a market of $630 for a 6 / 10 build. 6 developers shipped in the last year and 20 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.1 times the market baseline, revenue up 85% on the market, 20 announced, ×3.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Flight + Bullet Time
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 10
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $239 → $359 → $0 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Flight + Bullet Time: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 10
Bottom 30% $30 (exactly $30)
Median $60 (exactly $60)
Top 25% $359 (exactly $359)
Top 5% $2.3k (exactly $2,274)
Developers, 2 yr 10
Released games 43
Announced 20
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 85% on the market, supply 50% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Flight
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Bullet Time
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Flight, Bullet Time
Price point
$4.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 7 games average 87% positive over 32 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $50, median $60, 1 in 4 over $350, 1 in 20 over $2.2k.

3 in 10 developers made under $50. 20 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Flight with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Choose Your Own AdventureFair9 devs · median $2.4k · 11 announced
  2. + Hidden ObjectFair9 devs · median $1.3k · 10 announced
  3. + Quick-Time EventsFair9 devs · median $657 · 9 announced
  4. + CatsFair6 devs · median $629 · 10 announced
  5. + Life SimPoor odds12 devs · median $70k · 29 announced
  6. + TradingPoor odds6 devs · median $36k · 21 announced
  7. + MiningPoor odds10 devs · median $35k · 13 announced
  8. + CraftingPoor odds14 devs · median $19k · 57 announced
  9. + Base BuildingPoor odds23 devs · median $17k · 48 announced
  10. + EconomyPoor odds20 devs · median $15k · 45 announced
  11. + RTSPoor odds14 devs · median $15k · 18 announced
  12. + Cold WarPoor odds10 devs · median $11k · 16 announced

All 132 pairs on the Flight page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Disassembly 3D older $29.99 309 81% 9.3k $278k (exactly $278,007) Khor Chin Heong
Comanche older $19.99 322 51% 9.7k $193k (exactly $193,103) NUKKLEAR, Ashborne Games
Disassembly VR older $29.99 157 59% 4.7k $141k (exactly $141,253) Khor Chin Heong
CyberThreat · EA older $19.99 94 73% 2.8k $56k (exactly $56,372) Enigmatic
Rocket Assault: Downhill Rush older $7.99 209 92% 6.3k $50k (exactly $50,097) Giovanni Elgert
Avium older $29.99 26 76% 780 $23k (exactly $23,392) The Robot
Hyper Echelon older $12.99 53 88% 1.6k $21k (exactly $20,654) GangoGames LLC
Bakemono - Demon Brigade Tenmen Unit 01 · EA older $19.99 17 70% 510 $10k (exactly $10,195) SuperSane Games
Putin Destroys Alien older $4.90 37 91% 1.1k $5.4k (exactly $5,439) Boris the Bear
Vector Prospector older $7.99 21 80% 630 $5.0k (exactly $5,034) SpinAttack Studio
Cosmo Riders $3.99 19 89% 570 $2.3k (exactly $2,274) Conversion7
JETPACK BIRDIE $4.99 6 83% 180 $898 (exactly $898) Alexey Kuleshov
Flight Weapon $5.99 2 100% 60 $359 (exactly $359) Dying Tiger Studios AB
Ghost of Kyiv $2.04 1 100% 30 $61 (exactly $61) Jonald
太和的疯狂农场 Taihe's Crazy Farm $1.99 1 0% 30 $60 (exactly $60) 太和独游匠
Shooting Aircraft $0.99 2 100% 60 $59 (exactly $59) zjf
Blue Crow $0.99 1 100% 30 $30 (exactly $30) Samet MUMCU
Our War: Firepower Suppression $16.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Chengdu Old Man
Nebula Live: Galactic trials $9.73 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) KaamosGames
Finish The Dishes! $4.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Fractbit

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.