Do I ship it?

Games › Turn-Based Combat › Turn-Based Combat + Bullet Hell

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Bullet Hell Turn-Based Combat game?

Turn-Based Combat + Bullet Hell

Only 16 developers shipped a Bullet Hell Turn-Based Combat game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Little Witch Survivors, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 32 more are announced, ×3.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.2k, ×2.5 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $50; 1 in 20 cleared $81k, ×171 the market median. Revenue is down 100% on the market; 32 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.5 times the market baseline, revenue down 100% on the market, 32 announced, ×3.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Turn-Based Combat + Bullet Hell
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 16
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $8.6k → $1.2k → $26k → $0 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Turn-Based Combat + Bullet Hell: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 16
Bottom 30% $0 (exactly $0)
Median $1.2k (exactly $1,198)
Top 25% $15k (exactly $14,840)
Top 5% $81k (exactly $81,287)
Developers, 2 yr 16
Released games 44
Announced 32
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue too few recent games to read momentum, supply 30% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 20%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Turn-Based Combat
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Bullet Hell
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Turn-Based Combat, Bullet Hell; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Strategy, Action Roguelike
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $18.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Top-Down, 2D, Atmospheric
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $18.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 85% positive over 823 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $50, median $1.2k, 1 in 4 over $14k, 1 in 20 over $81k.

3 in 10 developers made under $50. 9 in 10 of the 9 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 32 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Turn-Based Combat with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + WuxiaStrong odds20 devs · median $19k · 21 announced
  2. + Hack and SlashStrong odds28 devs · median $3.7k · 27 announced
  3. + RomeFair8 devs · median $16k · 13 announced
  4. + CookingFair15 devs · median $6.0k · 22 announced
  5. + UndergroundFair18 devs · median $4.2k · 29 announced
  6. + IdlerFair52 devs · median $4.0k · 41 announced
  7. + DiceFair49 devs · median $2.2k · 59 announced
  8. + Traditional RoguelikeFair81 devs · median $1.4k · 107 announced
  9. + ArcadeFair59 devs · median $1.3k · 71 announced
  10. + Tower DefenseFair28 devs · median $839 · 34 announced
  11. + Artificial IntelligenceFair46 devs · median $719 · 52 announced
  12. + SolitaireFair26 devs · median $450 · 31 announced

All 175 pairs on the Turn-Based Combat page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Touhou Artificial Dream in Arcadia 2023 · $347k The Last Federation 2014 · $228k Little Witch Survivors 2025 · $81k Dreamed Away 2025 · $34k Swords and Sorcery - Underworld - Definitive Edition 2015 · $28k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Touhou Artificial Dream in Arcadia older $9.99 1,157 96% 35k $347k (exactly $346,753) Bar Holographic Otaku
The Last Federation older $19.99 380 72% 11k $228k (exactly $227,886) Arcen Games
Little Witch Survivors $4.99 543 87% 16k $81k (exactly $81,287) 四月二酱
Dreamed Away $18.99 59 91% 1.8k $34k (exactly $33,612) WAKE UP GAMES
Swords and Sorcery - Underworld - Definitive Edition older $9.99 93 72% 2.8k $28k (exactly $27,872) OlderBytes
This Isn't Just Tower Defense $6.99 122 61% 3.7k $26k (exactly $25,583) Pri Games
Chess Survivors older $4.99 155 83% 4.7k $23k (exactly $23,204) Aarimous
Decks of Dexterity $14.99 33 100% 990 $15k (exactly $14,840) Coded Games
FROGUE older $11.99 34 91% 1.0k $12k (exactly $12,230) Wired Dreams Studio
Atlas Wept older $7.99 40 95% 1.2k $9.6k (exactly $9,588) Kbojisoft
Hex Blast $4.99 30 100% 900 $4.5k (exactly $4,491) Soy Boy Games
NUSNUR $4.99 16 100% 480 $2.4k (exactly $2,395) Team PARAFOX
Rootin' Tootin' Lootin' & Shootin' $8.99 6 100% 180 $1.6k (exactly $1,618) Raspberry Jam
GAME (not) OVER $4.99 8 100% 240 $1.2k (exactly $1,198) The Croissant Crusaders
Peech World $4.99 4 100% 120 $599 (exactly $599) Bramble Software
Odyssey Times - A Quest for Adventure $6.99 2 100% 60 $419 (exactly $419) Icefire Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.