Do I ship it?

Games › Time Manipulation › Time Manipulation + Bullet Hell

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Time Manipulation Bullet Hell?

Time Manipulation + Bullet Hell

Of 22 developers who shipped a Time Manipulation Bullet Hell in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 37 more are announced, ×4.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.4k, ×5.0 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $600; 1 in 20 cleared $94k, ×199 the market median. Revenue is up 55% on the market; 37 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 5.0 times the market baseline, revenue up 55% on the market, 37 announced, ×4.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Time Manipulation + Bullet Hell
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 22
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $359 → $90 → $4.8k → $2.0k → $2.2k → $479 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Time Manipulation + Bullet Hell: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 22
Bottom 30% $599 (exactly $599)
Median $2.4k (exactly $2,395)
Top 25% $5.7k (exactly $5,694)
Top 5% $94k (exactly $94,406)
Developers, 2 yr 22
Released games 60
Announced 37
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 55% on the market, supply 30% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Time Manipulation
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Bullet Hell
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Time Manipulation, Bullet Hell; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Action Roguelike, Roguelike
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $11.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Pixel Graphics, 2D, Colorful
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $11.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 84% positive over 1,430 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $600, median $2.4k, 1 in 4 over $5.6k, 1 in 20 over $94k.

3 in 10 developers made under $600. 9 in 10 of the 13 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 37 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Time Manipulation with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + DemonsFair14 devs · median $2.7k · 9 announced
  2. + CapitalismFair9 devs · median $1.8k · 14 announced
  3. + ModernFair12 devs · median $987 · 9 announced
  4. + PsychologicalFair18 devs · median $897 · 17 announced
  5. + CollectathonFair10 devs · median $657 · 15 announced
  6. + RacingFair10 devs · median $599 · 12 announced
  7. + Precision PlatformerFair22 devs · median $598 · 20 announced
  8. + Choose Your Own AdventurePoor odds9 devs · median $13k · 24 announced
  9. + RobotsPoor odds12 devs · median $11k · 16 announced
  10. + Post-apocalypticPoor odds7 devs · median $6.7k · 22 announced
  11. + DetectivePoor odds16 devs · median $6.5k · 32 announced
  12. + NoirPoor odds9 devs · median $6.5k · 15 announced

All 103 pairs on the Time Manipulation page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Touhou Luna Nights 2019 · $7.4M Ascend to ZERO 2026 · $312k Super Time Force Ultra 2014 · $304k Sine Mora EX 2017 · $139k Soundodger 2 2023 · $111k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Touhou Luna Nights older $17.99 13,776 97% 413k $7.4M (exactly $7,434,907) Team Ladybug, WSS playground
Ascend to ZERO $11.99 867 82% 26k $312k (exactly $311,860) Flyway Games, Inc.
Super Time Force Ultra older $14.99 677 90% 20k $304k (exactly $304,447) Capybara Games
Sine Mora EX older $9.99 463 66% 14k $139k (exactly $138,761) Digital Reality, Grasshopper Manufactur… (Digital Reality, Grasshopper Manufacture, Gyroscope Games)
Soundodger 2 older $19.99 185 95% 5.6k $111k (exactly $110,944) Studio Bean
Maze Mice $9.99 315 88% 9.5k $94k (exactly $94,406) TrampolineTales
Blast-off older $2.99 379 86% 11k $34k (exactly $33,996) Quad-Games
Time Snatcher Handy $9.99 88 96% 2.6k $26k (exactly $26,374) PulleyBun, ClockworkCats
ARK and ADE older $9.99 57 96% 1.7k $17k (exactly $17,083) Castello Inc
COLD VR $19.99 28 60% 840 $17k (exactly $16,792) ALLWARE LLC
Moon Watch · EA $9.99 56 57% 1.7k $17k (exactly $16,783) Jaspel
Duck Paradox $9.99 19 100% 570 $5.7k (exactly $5,694) Magic Games
AIRANBLADE $8.99 17 94% 510 $4.6k (exactly $4,585) ANIMABOX
A Duel Hand Disaster: Trackher $9.99 11 100% 330 $3.3k (exactly $3,297) Ask An Enemy Studios
Tower of Jank $6.99 13 92% 390 $2.7k (exactly $2,726) Matas Dragūnas
NUSNUR $4.99 16 100% 480 $2.4k (exactly $2,395) Team PARAFOX

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.