Do I ship it?

GamesCollectathonCollectathon + Bullet Hell

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Collectathon Bullet Hell?

Collectathon + Bullet Hell

Of 49 developers who shipped a Collectathon Bullet Hell in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 41 more are announced.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $600, ×1.3 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $150; 1 in 20 cleared $38k, ×81 the market median. Revenue is down 55% on the market; 41 games are announced against 25 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.3 times the market baseline, revenue down 55% on the market, 41 announced, ×1.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Collectathon + Bullet Hell
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 49
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $4.3k → $1.4k → $150 → $2.0k → $1.3k → $538 → $599 (still earning) → $299 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Collectathon + Bullet Hell: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 49
Bottom 30% $150 (exactly $150)
Median $599 (exactly $599)
Top 25% $3.4k (exactly $3,443)
Top 5% $38k (exactly $38,424)
Developers, 2 yr 49
Released games 130
Announced 41
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 55% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Collectathon
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Bullet Hell
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Collectathon, Bullet Hell; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Arcade, Shooter
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $17.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Pixel Graphics, Colorful
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $17.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 84% positive over 774 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $150, median $600, 1 in 4 over $3.4k, 1 in 20 over $38k.

3 in 10 developers made under $150. Nearly all of the 28 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 41 games are announced against 25 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Collectathon with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Job SimulatorStrong odds33 devs · median $33k · 42 announced
  2. + CapitalismStrong odds76 devs · median $6.2k · 75 announced
  3. + Turn-BasedFair7 devs · median $14k · 8 announced
  4. + EconomyFair125 devs · median $3.8k · 151 announced
  5. + ManagementFair182 devs · median $3.5k · 230 announced
  6. + CrimeFair10 devs · median $3.4k · 14 announced
  7. + Level EditorFair15 devs · median $3.4k · 17 announced
  8. + Artificial IntelligenceFair46 devs · median $2.7k · 30 announced
  9. + SokobanFair12 devs · median $2.4k · 9 announced
  10. + MythologyFair18 devs · median $2.4k · 20 announced
  11. + UnderwaterFair37 devs · median $2.3k · 37 announced
  12. + Combat RacingFair10 devs · median $2.2k · 12 announced

All 178 pairs on the Collectathon page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Full Mojo Rampage older $12.99 524 85% 16k $204k (exactly $204,203) Over the Top Games
Canyon of Outlaws $39.99 92 89% 2.8k $110k (exactly $110,372) Javlier P
Epic Battle Fantasy Collection older $7.99 349 95% 10k $84k (exactly $83,655) Matt Roszak
Outrider Mako $17.99 121 65% 3.6k $65k (exactly $65,304) Asamado Games
Duncrush $3.99 321 82% 9.6k $38k (exactly $38,424) Golden Pick Games
Just Click The Button older $2.99 341 90% 10k $31k (exactly $30,588) Simon Eftestol
Sophstar older $9.99 94 100% 2.8k $28k (exactly $28,172) Banana Bytes
Monospaced Lovers $19.99 30 90% 900 $18k (exactly $17,991) Scarlet String Studios
RoadOut $14.99 34 97% 1.0k $15k (exactly $15,290) Rastrolabs Game Studio
Super reaKtor $4.99 55 100% 1.7k $8.2k (exactly $8,234) SuperSAZ Studio
The Phoenix Gene VR $24.99 10 100% 300 $7.5k (exactly $7,497) HEROmation
BeDo $4.99 39 100% 1.2k $5.8k (exactly $5,838) Felipe Jimenez, Reborilux
GutBuster $4.99 38 100% 1.1k $5.7k (exactly $5,689) RoyalJellySoftware
YGGDRA: SURVIVOR $4.99 34 79% 1.0k $5.1k (exactly $5,090) BD

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.