Do I ship it?

GamesBuildingBuilding + Western

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Western Building game?

Building + Western

Only 12 developers shipped a Western Building game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Alaska Gold Fever, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 23 more are announced, ×3.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $24k, ×38 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $12k; 1 in 20 cleared $480k, ×778 the market median. Revenue is up 240% on the market; 23 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 37.8 times the market baseline, revenue up 240% on the market, 23 announced, ×3.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Building + Western
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 12
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.9k → $254k → $13k → $451k (still earning) → $24k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Building + Western: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 12
Bottom 30% $12k (exactly $11,534)
Median $24k (exactly $23,747)
Top 25% $254k (exactly $254,273)
Top 5% $489k (exactly $488,802)
Developers, 2 yr 12
Released games 37
Announced 23
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $16.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 240% on the market, supply 40% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Building
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Western
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Building
Price point
$16.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 75% positive over 2,451 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $12k, median $24k, 1 in 4 over $250k, 1 in 20 over $480k.

3 in 10 developers made under $12k. 6 in 10 of the 5 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 23 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Building with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Job SimulatorStrong odds66 devs · median $28k · 70 announced
  2. + CatsFair52 devs · median $4.5k · 59 announced
  3. + TabletopFair56 devs · median $1.9k · 58 announced
  4. + Grid-Based MovementFair50 devs · median $719 · 57 announced
  5. + Interactive FictionFair17 devs · median $449 · 20 announced
  6. + Vehicular CombatPoor odds14 devs · median $303k · 40 announced
  7. + JRPGPoor odds10 devs · median $89k · 20 announced
  8. + Dating SimPoor odds28 devs · median $85k · 61 announced
  9. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds112 devs · median $71k · 251 announced
  10. + Real-TimePoor odds14 devs · median $62k · 20 announced
  11. + CrimePoor odds13 devs · median $55k · 52 announced
  12. + SailingPoor odds13 devs · median $52k · 40 announced

All 210 pairs on the Building page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Railway Empire older $29.99 7,219 82% 217k $6.5M (exactly $6,494,934) Gaming Minds Studios
Railway Empire 2 older $49.99 1,966 72% 59k $2.9M (exactly $2,948,410) Gaming Minds Studios
Heat older $19.99 2,612 49% 78k $1.6M (exactly $1,566,416) Code}{atch
SteamWorld Build older $24.99 1,884 83% 57k $1.4M (exactly $1,412,435) The Station
Wild West Legacy older $26.99 1,706 39% 51k $1.4M (exactly $1,381,348) Moon Punch Studio
Railroad Corporation older $35.99 1,094 74% 33k $1.2M (exactly $1,181,192) Corbie Games
Above Snakes older $24.99 1,574 74% 47k $1.2M (exactly $1,180,028) Square Glade Games
Depraved older $19.99 1,129 60% 34k $677k (exactly $677,061) Evil Bite
Alaska Gold Fever $16.99 959 79% 29k $489k (exactly $488,802) Baked Games
Railroad Corporation 2 $39.99 376 69% 11k $451k (exactly $451,087) Corbie Games
Wild Indigo Ranch $19.99 424 68% 13k $254k (exactly $254,273) Funday Games
Cattle Country $18.99 335 86% 10k $191k (exactly $190,849) Castle Pixel, LLC.
Wild West Miner Simulator $5.99 181 66% 5.4k $33k (exactly $32,526) Digital Melody
Ranchbound · EA $17.99 44 50% 1.3k $24k (exactly $23,747) Eldersong Games
Union Of Rivals · EA $25.49 31 64% 930 $24k (exactly $23,706) 2Play
WAGON $10.99 38 94% 1.1k $13k (exactly $12,529) de_husk
Fuel Station Simulator $6.99 55 60% 1.7k $12k (exactly $11,534) QuantumPlay Studios
The First Mine $4.99 8 87% 240 $1.2k (exactly $1,198) Stefan Böttcher

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.