Do I ship it?

GamesBuildingBuilding + Turn-Based Strategy

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Building Turn-Based Strategy?

Building + Turn-Based Strategy

Of 121 developers who shipped a Building Turn-Based Strategy in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 216 more are announced, ×3.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.2k, ×3.4 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $600; 1 in 20 cleared $250k, ×412 the market median. Revenue is down 75% on the market; 216 games are announced against 71 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.4 times the market baseline, revenue down 75% on the market, 216 announced, ×3.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Building + Turn-Based Strategy
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 121
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $9.3k → $10k → $3.2k → $7.3k → $17k → $3.9k → $1.5k (still earning) → $719 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Building + Turn-Based Strategy: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 121
Bottom 30% $599 (exactly $599)
Median $2.2k (exactly $2,156)
Top 25% $20k (exactly $20,497)
Top 5% $259k (exactly $258,543)
Developers, 2 yr 121
Released games 311
Announced 216
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $8.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 75% on the market, supply 40% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Building
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Turn-Based Strategy
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Building, Turn-Based Strategy; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Simulation, Turn-Based Tactics
Price point
$8.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $8.99.

The top 10 games average 82% positive over 20,307 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $600, median $2.2k, 1 in 4 over $20k, 1 in 20 over $250k.

3 in 10 developers made under $600. 7 in 10 of the 56 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 216 games are announced against 71 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Building with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Job SimulatorStrong odds66 devs · median $28k · 70 announced
  2. + CatsFair52 devs · median $4.5k · 59 announced
  3. + TabletopFair56 devs · median $1.9k · 58 announced
  4. + Grid-Based MovementFair50 devs · median $719 · 57 announced
  5. + Interactive FictionFair17 devs · median $449 · 20 announced
  6. + Vehicular CombatPoor odds14 devs · median $303k · 40 announced
  7. + JRPGPoor odds10 devs · median $89k · 20 announced
  8. + Dating SimPoor odds28 devs · median $85k · 61 announced
  9. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds112 devs · median $71k · 251 announced
  10. + Real-TimePoor odds14 devs · median $62k · 20 announced
  11. + CrimePoor odds13 devs · median $55k · 52 announced
  12. + SailingPoor odds13 devs · median $52k · 40 announced

All 210 pairs on the Building page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Sid Meier’s Civilization® VI older $59.99 276,113 86% 8.3M $497M (exactly $496,920,566) Firaxis Games, Aspyr (Mac), Aspyr (Linu… (Firaxis Games, Aspyr (Mac), Aspyr (Linux))
HUMANKIND™ older $49.99 22,165 68% 665k $33M (exactly $33,240,850) AMPLITUDE Studios
Ultimate Admiral: Dreadnoughts older $34.99 6,664 62% 200k $7.0M (exactly $6,995,201) Game-Labs
Wingspan older $19.99 9,807 94% 294k $5.9M (exactly $5,881,258) Monster Couch
Backpack Hero older $19.99 7,423 85% 223k $4.5M (exactly $4,451,573) Jaspel
The Matchless Kungfu $19.99 6,755 79% 203k $4.1M (exactly $4,050,973) HuanMos Game
Heroes' Vow: Three Kingdoms · EA $19.99 6,652 88% 200k $4.0M (exactly $3,989,204) Free Wing
Terraforming Mars older $19.99 5,194 71% 156k $3.1M (exactly $3,114,842) Artefacts Studio
ISLANDERS older $4.99 16,104 94% 483k $2.4M (exactly $2,410,769) Coatsink, GrizzlyGames, Stage Clear Stu… (Coatsink, GrizzlyGames, Stage Clear Studios)
The Battle of Polytopia older $14.99 4,731 94% 142k $2.1M (exactly $2,127,531) Midjiwan AB
Ascension · EA $19.99 2,437 60% 73k $1.5M (exactly $1,461,469) Element Game 微元游戏
Deck of Haunts $19.99 1,206 84% 36k $723k (exactly $723,238) Mantis
Elemental: Reforged $29.99 478 73% 14k $430k (exactly $430,057) Stardock Entertainment
ISLANDERS: New Shores $9.99 1,230 96% 37k $369k (exactly $368,631) The Station
Preserve $12.49 690 92% 21k $259k (exactly $258,543) Bitmap Galaxy
Moonsigil Atlas $19.99 261 81% 7.8k $157k (exactly $156,522) Snake Tower Games
Rogue Hex $19.99 260 89% 7.8k $156k (exactly $155,922) Topstitch Games
Hold The Mine · EA $14.99 338 83% 10k $152k (exactly $151,999) Hookaria Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.