Do I ship it?

Games › Building › Building + Turn-Based Combat

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Building Turn-Based Combat game?

Building + Turn-Based Combat

Of 47 developers who shipped a Building Turn-Based Combat game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 80 more are announced, ×2.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $11k, ×17 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $720; 1 in 20 cleared $430k, ×685 the market median. Revenue is down 85% on the market; 80 games are announced against 31 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 17.4 times the market baseline, revenue down 85% on the market, 80 announced, ×2.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Building + Turn-Based Combat
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 47
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $3.6k → $1.9k → $300 → $41k → $33k → $7.0k → $7.9k (still earning) → $718 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Building + Turn-Based Combat: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 47
Bottom 30% $719 (exactly $719)
Median $11k (exactly $10,912)
Top 25% $52k (exactly $52,148)
Top 5% $430k (exactly $430,057)
Developers, 2 yr 47
Released games 117
Announced 80
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 85% on the market, supply 95% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Building
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Turn-Based Combat
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Building, Turn-Based Combat; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, RPG, Simulation
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 83% positive over 11,757 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $720, median $11k, 1 in 4 over $52k, 1 in 20 over $430k.

3 in 10 developers made under $720. 6 in 10 of the 19 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 80 games are announced against 31 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Building with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Job SimulatorStrong odds66 devs · median $28k · 70 announced
  2. + CatsFair52 devs · median $4.5k · 59 announced
  3. + TabletopFair56 devs · median $1.9k · 58 announced
  4. + Grid-Based MovementFair50 devs · median $719 · 57 announced
  5. + Interactive FictionFair17 devs · median $449 · 20 announced
  6. + Vehicular CombatPoor odds14 devs · median $303k · 40 announced
  7. + JRPGPoor odds10 devs · median $89k · 20 announced
  8. + Dating SimPoor odds28 devs · median $85k · 61 announced
  9. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds112 devs · median $71k · 251 announced
  10. + Real-TimePoor odds14 devs · median $62k · 20 announced
  11. + CrimePoor odds13 devs · median $55k · 52 announced
  12. + SailingPoor odds13 devs · median $52k · 40 announced

All 210 pairs on the Building page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

OCTOPATH TRAVELER 0 2025 · $4.3M Heroes' Vow: Three Kingdoms 2025 · EA · $4.0M Blackthorn Arena 2020 · $2.6M Port Royale 4 2020 · $1.7M Master of Magic 2022 · $1.2M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
OCTOPATH TRAVELER 0 $49.99 2,873 78% 86k $4.3M (exactly $4,308,638) Square Enix, DOKIDOKI GROOVE WORKS
Heroes' Vow: Three Kingdoms · EA $19.99 6,652 88% 200k $4.0M (exactly $3,989,204) Free Wing
Blackthorn Arena older $24.99 3,477 69% 104k $2.6M (exactly $2,606,707) PersonaeGame Studio
Port Royale 4 older $39.99 1,405 56% 42k $1.7M (exactly $1,685,578) Gaming Minds
Master of Magic older $39.99 1,023 71% 31k $1.2M (exactly $1,227,293) MuHa Games, Eerie Forest Studio
Screeps: World older $19.99 1,934 86% 58k $1.2M (exactly $1,159,820) Screeps, LLC
SunnySide older $19.99 913 67% 27k $548k (exactly $547,526) Aftabi Games
Three Kingdoms The Last Warlord older $3.99 3,611 68% 108k $432k (exactly $432,237) LongYou Game Studio
Elemental: Reforged $29.99 478 73% 14k $430k (exactly $430,057) Stardock Entertainment
Balrum older $14.99 728 78% 22k $327k (exactly $327,382) Balcony Softworks
Moonsigil Atlas $19.99 261 81% 7.8k $157k (exactly $156,522) Snake Tower Games
Yield! Fall of Rome $19.99 219 69% 6.6k $131k (exactly $131,334) Billionworlds
EcoGnomix $19.99 216 74% 6.5k $130k (exactly $129,535) Irox Games
Seeds of Calamity $14.99 271 78% 8.1k $122k (exactly $121,869) Laborious Lark Studios
The Eastern Sacrifice $9.99 356 55% 11k $107k (exactly $106,693) 五条虾仁(5 shrimps)
九州：立志 $11.99 235 81% 7.1k $85k (exactly $84,530) Xbgzs
Kaya's Prophecy $13.99 196 70% 5.9k $82k (exactly $82,261) Jérémie & Thibaut

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.