Do I ship it?

Games › Building › Building + Turn-Based

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Building Turn-Based game?

Building + Turn-Based

Only 17 developers shipped a Building Turn-Based game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, OCTOPATH TRAVELER 0, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 36 more are announced, ×3.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $33k, ×53 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $3.9k; 1 in 20 cleared $4.3M, ×6861 the market median. Revenue is down 95% on the market; 36 games are announced against 11 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 53.0 times the market baseline, revenue down 95% on the market, 36 announced, ×3.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Building + Turn-Based
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 17
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $63k → $1.4M → $1.6M → $83k → $288k → $4.0k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Building + Turn-Based: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 17
Bottom 30% $3.9k (exactly $3,896)
Median $33k (exactly $33,289)
Top 25% $157k (exactly $156,522)
Top 5% $4.3M (exactly $4,308,638)
Developers, 2 yr 17
Released games 83
Announced 36
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $14.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 95% on the market, supply 85% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 16%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Building
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Turn-Based
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Building, Turn-Based; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Base Building, Roguelite
Price point
$14.99 typical · top 25% priced $49.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Atmospheric, Colorful
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $49.99 or above; the middle game at $14.99.

The top 10 games average 79% positive over 6,454 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $3.9k, median $33k, 1 in 4 over $150k, 1 in 20 over $4.3M.

3 in 10 developers made under $3.9k. 5 in 10 of the 8 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 36 games are announced against 11 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Building with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Job SimulatorStrong odds66 devs · median $28k · 70 announced
  2. + CatsFair52 devs · median $4.5k · 59 announced
  3. + TabletopFair56 devs · median $1.9k · 58 announced
  4. + Grid-Based MovementFair50 devs · median $719 · 57 announced
  5. + Interactive FictionFair17 devs · median $449 · 20 announced
  6. + Vehicular CombatPoor odds14 devs · median $303k · 40 announced
  7. + JRPGPoor odds10 devs · median $89k · 20 announced
  8. + Dating SimPoor odds28 devs · median $85k · 61 announced
  9. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds112 devs · median $71k · 251 announced
  10. + Real-TimePoor odds14 devs · median $62k · 20 announced
  11. + CrimePoor odds13 devs · median $55k · 52 announced
  12. + SailingPoor odds13 devs · median $52k · 40 announced

All 210 pairs on the Building page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Sid Meier’s Civilization® VI 2016 · $497M HUMANKIND™ 2021 · $33M Backpack Hero 2023 · $4.5M OCTOPATH TRAVELER 0 2025 · $4.3M Terraforming Mars 2018 · $3.1M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Sid Meier’s Civilization® VI older $59.99 276,113 86% 8.3M $497M (exactly $496,920,566) Firaxis Games, Aspyr (Mac), Aspyr (Linu… (Firaxis Games, Aspyr (Mac), Aspyr (Linux))
HUMANKIND™ older $49.99 22,165 68% 665k $33M (exactly $33,240,850) AMPLITUDE Studios
Backpack Hero older $19.99 7,423 85% 223k $4.5M (exactly $4,451,573) Jaspel
OCTOPATH TRAVELER 0 $49.99 2,873 78% 86k $4.3M (exactly $4,308,638) Square Enix, DOKIDOKI GROOVE WORKS
Terraforming Mars older $19.99 5,194 71% 156k $3.1M (exactly $3,114,842) Artefacts Studio
The Battle of Polytopia older $14.99 4,731 94% 142k $2.1M (exactly $2,127,531) Midjiwan AB
Gladiator Guild Manager older $14.99 3,808 80% 114k $1.7M (exactly $1,712,458) Entertainment Forge
Mars Horizon older $19.99 2,757 84% 83k $1.7M (exactly $1,653,373) Auroch Digital
Reus 2 older $24.99 2,133 94% 64k $1.6M (exactly $1,599,110) Abbey Games
dotAGE older $17.59 2,560 94% 77k $1.4M (exactly $1,350,912) Michele Pirovano
Deck of Haunts $19.99 1,206 84% 36k $723k (exactly $723,238) Mantis
MINOS $17.99 544 88% 16k $294k (exactly $293,597) Artificer
Pile Up! $9.99 961 73% 29k $288k (exactly $288,012) Remoob
Moonsigil Atlas $19.99 261 81% 7.8k $157k (exactly $156,522) Snake Tower Games
Yield! Fall of Rome $19.99 219 69% 6.6k $131k (exactly $131,334) Billionworlds
River Towns $14.99 184 89% 5.5k $83k (exactly $82,745) Frogsong Studios
Lords of Ravage $9.99 138 66% 4.1k $41k (exactly $41,359) Synthetic Domain
KAMiBAKO - Mythology of Cube - $29.99 37 64% 1.1k $33k (exactly $33,289) GRAVITY GAME ARISE
Don't Freeze: A Winter Card Survival · EA $17.99 31 74% 930 $17k (exactly $16,731) YOLO35GAMES

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.